What economists think about JD Vance’s claim that immigration drives up housing costs | Real Time Headlines

America’s two vice presidential candidates agreed Tuesday night that the country is in housing crisis Too few homes and steady demand have caused costs to skyrocket.

But Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have offered radically different views on how the country can get there and how to solve the problem.

Republican candidate Vance believes that housing is one of many issues stemming from the arrival of undocumented immigrants in the United States.

“You see, in Springfield, Ohio, and in communities across the country, schools are overwhelmed, hospitals are overwhelmed, housing is completely unaffordable because we’re bringing in millions of illegal immigrants.” Vance, according to CBS News records Said: “Competing with Americans for scarce housing. “With the exception of zoning reform, most of the policies of Vance and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are premised on an unprecedented mass eviction program that they believe will reduce competition for housing.

Democratic candidate Walz said the causes of America’s housing crisis are more subtle.

“We can’t blame immigration solely,” he said. “The truth is, we don’t have enough affordable housing naturally, but we can make sure that the government helps start it, create it, create that foundation.” Walz and Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris hope to use the tax incentives and expenditures to stimulate housing construction and reduce the financial burden of home ownership.

U.S. housing is expensive: NBC News Homebuyer Difficulty Index still very highHousing costs continue to account for the majority of consumer inflation, having climbed more than 24% since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rents are rising faster.

But many economists warn that linking rising immigration numbers to housing costs is not a simple matter. Some say it’s not immediately possible to examine existing data and surveys to determine the extent of immigration’s impact on the individual housing market — although Ernie Tedeschi, President Joe Biden’s former White House chief economist, has drawn The chart shows that nationally there is no clear correlation between foreign-born population growth and native-born house prices.

Other economists have also noted the connection between immigration and rising housing costs. After the debate, Vance’s X account has been shared Link to speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who said “an influx of new immigrants into certain geographic areas could lead to upward pressure on rents as additional housing supply may take some time to materialize” — — although in the same speech she said immigration could also help alleviate labor shortages.

Vance later shared Two studies on housing and immigration This shows a link between increased immigration and rising housing costs – although each comes with various caveats, including noting that the impact changes over time.

On Wednesday, the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank Published a blog post Titled “J.D. Vance is Right: Immigration Increases Home Prices, and That’s Okay,” it argues that while increases in the immigrant population do lead to higher housing costs, “much of the increase in housing wealth due to immigration accrues to native-born Americans,” and Because immigrants are so large in the construction industry, they also add to overall housing supply.

But overall, economists are skeptical that immigration is the main driver of the current woes. Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, said that while immigrants do increase overall housing demand, “they cannot be blamed for the recent spikes in home prices and rents in 2020 and 2021.” He spoke via electronic mail The statement, emailed to news outlets, comes at a time when immigration levels are at their lowest levels in decades due to the pandemic.

When immigration begins to surge in 2022 and peaks in 2023, “house price and rental growth slows sharply,” Herbert said.

“Interest rate trends and pandemic-induced housing demand are the primary contributors to recent housing cost trends,” he added.

Sharon Cornelison, housing director for the Consumer Federation of America, which advocates for fair housing policies, said immigrants historically have tended to cluster in sparsely populated or underutilized towns or neighborhoods without direct interaction with native-born residents. compete. She cited how New York City and Los Angeles in the 1970s and 1980s dealt with the consequences of white flight, and how an influx of immigrants helped revitalize them.

Middle Eastern populations have also contributed to helping cities like Dearborn and Hamtramck outside Detroit turn around, she said.

There is evidence that the recent influx of immigrants has become too much for the communities they arrive to cope with.

In Brockton, Massachusetts, immigrants from countries as diverse as Haiti, Cape Verde, and Central and South American countries are straining local resources — though mostly in the form of emergency shelter capacity. nbc boston Reports emerged this summer that immigrant-focused nonprofits have been helping newly arrived families stay in motels, and they are also working with private landlords to place other families in apartments.

Bryan Heck, the city manager in Springfield, Ohio, said housing issues existed long before the surge and that the city has become a flashpoint in the national immigration debate. said in the letter Vance and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this summer.

But Heck acknowledged that immigrants play a role in complicating the situation.

“Springfield has experienced a recent population surge due to immigration, which has greatly impacted our ability as a community to provide adequate housing opportunities for all,” Heck wrote, estimating that the city’s Haitian population has declined over the past four years. has grown to 15,000 to 20,000 people in a community of fewer than 60,000 residents.

He said the growth puts “significant” pressure on the city’s ability to provide housing for all residents. indeed, Zillow data shows clear upward trend Springfield rents this year compared to 2023.

“Even though 2,000 new housing units will be added over the next three to five years, that’s still not enough,” Heck said.

His request? More aid from Washington.

“Without further support at the federal level, communities like Springfield will be unable to meet the housing needs of their residents,” he wrote.