European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) and US Vice President Kamala Harry at the UK Artificial Intelligence (AI) Security Summit at Bletchley Park in central England on November 2, 2023 Si (right) queues up to take a family photo.
Daniel Leal | AFP | Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris is preparing to deliver what is considered the most important political speech of her career at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday.
The 59-year-old politician is expected to outline her vision and policy agenda to the American people, while many in Europe are also keen to understand what a Harris presidency would mean for transatlantic relations.
Harris, who Climb to the top Democratic ticket following President Joe Biden it’s over The campaign last month will go head-to-head with Republican nominee, former President Trump, in November.
Political analysts told CNBC that if Harris wins, they expect Biden’s policy platform to take a broadly similar approach, albeit with some subtle differences on major international issues, such as Russian-Ukrainian War.
Europe is under no illusions that a Democratic White House will mean the United States will meet all of the continent’s security needs and reverse its industrial policy.
Sudha David Welp
Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit expect a Harris presidency will bring continuity on foreign affairs.
“This means a gradual reduction in military aid to Ukraine, rather than the dramatic reduction we expected under Donald Trump to force peace talks; a tough stance on China, but no immediate threat from Trump to raise tariffs; and continues to work on balancing support, EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti told CNBC via email.
They added: “Harris is certainly not criticizing Biden on these issues, but she may change the message around them, as is the case with her emphasis on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.”
Ukraine, Israel and China
Francesco Nicoli, assistant professor of political science at the Polytechnic of Turin in Italy, said that during Harris’s term as president, the current path of convergence between the United States and the European Union is likely to continue, especially in areas such as trade, artificial intelligence, and big data. . Technology and climate policy.
“We can probably expect a Harris-Walz presidency to be bolder than Biden on Ukraine,” Nicoli told CNBC via email.
“Without a fundamental (change) of the ‘red lines’ approach that has so far limited U.S. aid to Ukraine, it is likely that the new Democratic candidates will adopt a more liberal approach and provide Ukraine with the means to promote and test such aid. Red Lines,” “Walz, in particular, has been a strong supporter of Ukraine,” he continued. “
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, right, and Minnesota Governor and Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz during a campaign event at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., Tuesday, August 20, 2024 .
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Nicoli, who is also a visiting fellow at Brussels think tank Brussels, said a Harris presidency was unlikely to radically change the transatlantic approach on international issues such as Israel and China.
He said the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, was likely to praise any compromise deal between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas as a success “as soon as the war ends”, noting that the EU seemed “happy to withdraw from negotiations”. leadership”
A spokesman for the European Commission had no immediate comment when contacted by CNBC on Thursday.
“Similarly, while I have no doubt that if China launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, the EU would respond quickly and unanimously, the EU is currently too divided on China to be able to be the US’s partner in any situation without openness. Reliable partner.
“The EU is likely to continue its piecemeal industrial policy, which may be labeled anti-China in negotiations with any future U.S. president, but in reality it may be as antagonizing the United States as it is China. Harris is less likely to Maybe being president would change that,” he added.
Security needs and industrial policy
Sudha David Welp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank, said in a recent report Blog article Harris’ victory in November “will provide Europe with breathing space to strengthen its defense capabilities” and “adapt to the new reality” in U.S.-European relations.
“There will undoubtedly be a degree of continuity in ideals, actions and advisors from the Biden administration to Kamala Harris’s presidency,” David Wilp said.
“But Europe is under no illusions that a Democratic win in the White House will mean that the United States will meet all of the continent’s security needs and reverse its industrial policy.”
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) speaks with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelens during a meeting during the Ukraine Peace Summit at the Burgenstock luxury resort near Lucerne on June 15, 2024 Handshake.
Alessandro della Valle | AFP | Getty Images
David Welp says instead of being ‘confused’ about Biden’s signature Inflation reduction methodThe EU should work with the United States to protect supply chains from economic weaponization and focus on bringing together more capital and research domestically to achieve breakthroughs in areas such as artificial intelligence or green energy.
“Harris will not undermine the transatlantic relationship, but her foreign policy focus will naturally turn first to China and address pressing crises in the Middle East and the U.S. southern border — topics more relevant to U.S. domestic politics,” she said. Extra.
