Investor confidence in ASML has been waning, but Bernstein remains bullish on the Dutch company, which makes high-tech machines relied on by the world’s largest chipmakers. “We remain constructive on ASML,” analysts at the investment bank wrote in a Dec. 18 report. “While we have revised our forecasts down several times over the past six months to reflect the deteriorating outlook, we still factor in strong growth next year, at around 13% year-over-year, just shy of the €32.5 billion ($34 billion) forecast. Guidance,” they added. ASML’s shares are listed on Euronext Amsterdam and trade in the United States as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) under the symbol ASML. Dutch shares are up nearly 1.5% this year, while their ADRs are down about 5.4%. Bernstein rates both stocks outperform, with price targets of €730 for Dutch shares and $767 for ADRs, implying upside potential of approximately 5.5% and 7.1%, respectively, as of December 27. ASML-NL Shares have climbed so far this year ASML’s shares plunged in October after the company released its third-quarter results ahead of schedule. Its net bookings for the September quarter were 2.6 billion euros, well below LSEG’s consensus estimate of 5.6 billion euros. However, net sales exceeded expectations, reaching 7.5 billion euros. Analysts at Bernstein said: “The 30% revenue growth achieved by ASML in 2023 has proven difficult to sustain. Earlier this year, they set the tone that 2024 would be a transition year, which proved to be That’s right, revenue growth is now expected to be just 2%. In addition to lower bookings, ASML faces a tougher business outlook in China and export restrictions imposed by the Dutch government on shipments, Bernstein analysts noted. A key market for the semiconductor giant and “arguably the only driver of DUV (deep ultraviolet) growth in 2024.” A key question they note is, “given continued weakness in RoW (rest of the world) mature nodes and ASML’s guidance that China only accounts for 20% of system sales, what will drive DUV growth in 2025.” They now expect ” Growth in EUV (extreme ultraviolet) and services will outpace declines in DUV sales,” they explained: “While ASML provided lower guidance for 2025 EUV systems…partly due to delays from foundry customers at Intel and Samsung. We expect strong EUV revenue growth to be driven by ASP expansion, driven in part by HNA’s higher prices. They expect service revenue to grow 11% next year, as the Netherlands-based company previously announced in October. Net sales will be between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Ryan Browne contributed to this report.
Want to invest in ASML? Bernstein sees this as the direction of development in 2025 | Real Time Headlines
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