After the monetary policy committee meeting held in Washington, December 18, 2024, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the United States, delivered a speech at a press conference.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Agence France-Presse | Getty image
In the uncertainty of fiscal policies and the durability of inflation, the CNBC Federal Reserve survey of the Federal Reserve survey has canceled their expectations for reducing interest rates, but still believes that the Central Bank will relax this year.
Of the 25 respondents, 65 % of people see the reduction rate in 2025, which is equal to numbers Fed officials are engraved in the recent forecast And roughly equal to the expectations of the future market. But this decreased from 78 % in the previous survey, and 61 % of forecasts were cut at least one in 2026, lower than 70 % in December.
“I just can’t see (the Fed) confidence in how to reduce tax rates from here, especially when said Trump’s tariffs and tax policies said.
The Federal Reserve’s capital interest rate was 3.96 % at the end of the year, 12 basis points higher than the December survey, while 3.6 % in 2026 increased 16 basis points. A base point is equal to 0.01 %. The terminal rate or long -term nominal rate has increased again. It is now at 3.4 %, one -tenth higher than the percentage point in December, and one third higher than March 2024.
The reduction in the decline is due to the decline in economic decline, increased inflation forecasting, and various views on inflation and growth in the inflation and growth of the new government’s expected policies.
Opinions on inflation
Investigating the respondents emphasized the promise and uncertainty of the next few months, right President Donald Trump’s signature economic policyEssence His two campaign commitments (tariffs and immigrants) were considered to increase inflation and reduce growth. The other two policies (relaxation control and tax cuts) are considered positive for growth and are neutral or positive for inflation.
For example, 77 % of people think that tariffs are negative to inflation, while 73 % of tariffs believe that they are negatively growing. However, 55 % of people think that relaxation control will reduce inflation, and 68 % think it will promote growth.
Janney Montgomery Scott’s chief fixed income strategist Guy Lebas said: “Reasonable economists may disagree with the tariffs of inflation or the reduction of immigration reduction, but they are inflation.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s analysis, added: “Although the US economy is in a strong basic foundation, higher tariffs and major immigrants will reduce it, and it may be too far away. Destroy it. “
However, Drew T.
Richard I Sichel, a senior investment strategist in Philadelphia, saw a wide range of positive influence. He said: “The new government is full of vitality for everything, including the stock market.”
It is required to evaluate the total impact of the Trump policy, and 64 % say they will have some or very influenza, and 23 % think they are invalid for inflation. Some naked.
However, 60 % of people think they will increase to some extent, and 9 % think they are neutral, and 32 % think they will be a bit negative.
This prospect is reflected in the 12 -month prospect of actual prediction Consumer price index This year’s light push to 2.7 %, from 2.6 % in December, to 2.6 % next year from 2.5 %. The forecast of GDP was as high as 2.4 % in 2025, an increase of 3 basis points, but it remained unchanged in 2026 at 2.1 %.
The possibility of decline in the next 12 months dropped to 23 %, from 29 % equal to the level of February 2022.
When the tariffs involving Mexico and Canada, most people believe that their promulgation will depend on negotiations, but no matter what the negotiations are negotiated, additional tariffs on China will be imposed.
Does Trump conflict with the Federal Reserve?
Trump’s recent comments Require the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates The interviewees once again suspected that he would respect the independence of the Fed. Only 36 % believe that he would do this, decreased from 56 % in December.
Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors (Richard Bernstein Advisors, said: “We can test the independence of the Fed in 2025 because the growth of nominal growth may be people. Surprise, this may make the Fed officially put on hold, and even forced them to raise interest rates. “
However, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist in the country, said: “We want the Federal Reserve to unswervingly affect political influence and suspend its alleviation cycle at least in the first half of this year.”
At the same time, 64 % of people said that they did not believe that Trump would succeed in promoting inflation by increasing energy production and reducing energy prices.
Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics, said: “You can lead a petroleum company for leasing, but you cannot drill.” “Capital discipline means’ drill, baby, baby , Drilling, ‘We got, “Drilling?” Maybe not.
