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Strong U.S. demand for gold is “sucking” gold bars from some countries as traders try to face U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff rate reserves on Canada and Mexico.
Adrian Ash, research director at BullionVault, told CNBC that there is a “luxury of gold” in the vault in New York.
More than 600 tons or nearly 20 million ounces of gold have been shipped to the city’s vault since December, according to data provided by the World Gold Council. The gold usually doesn’t belong to New York, said John Reade, an Asian and European market strategist at the World Gold Council.
“You only keep it there when something special happens,” Reade told CNBC.
The threat of gold tariffs has prompted Bank of America, investors and merchants to transfer precious metals to New York Mercantile Exchange Center and other vaults, which would otherwise be stored in London.
“There are concerns that imminent tariffs in Canada and Mexico will affect gold and silver,” said Nicky Shiels, head of metal strategy at MKS PAMP.
The supply chain was destroyed due to this huge sucking sound, which the U.S. imported gold before potential tariffs.
John Reade
World Gold Council
Trump recently announced U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada After its implementation is postponed, it will expire next week. On February 1, the U.S. president signed an execution order to impose a 25% tariff on products in Canada and Mexico.
But some say investors are worried that the tariff threat will surpass both countries.
Shiels added that there are concerns that wider tariffs will also be used in the UK and Switzerland, which are also large-scale physical gold hubs.
“The biggest concern is that there could be a package of tariffs incurred for all imports to the United States, which could also apply to gold,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director of Metals Focus.
Canada and Mexico are one of the largest gold exporters in the United States. this The most imported gold from CanadaAccording to the OEC World, Switzerland, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa are followed.
Since Trump’s victory in the Trump election last November, U.S. gold futures have largely surpassed international peers, creating arbitrage opportunities for those who can transfer large amounts of gold bars to the United States.
Tariff issues
They attribute the movement to traders who want to close short positions, or businessmen who own brick-and-mortar gold in New York expect to sign short-term contracts to capture oversized premiums.
As of Thursday, COMEX listed gold futures were trading at $2,930.6 per ounce, while spot gold in London was $2,901, with a difference of nearly $30. The premium in January is even greater.
According to BullionVault, U.S. warehouses now stock consumer and gold demand for four years.
Domestic gold production in the United States in 2024 Estimated to be 160 tons, down From 170 tons in 2023according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Traders believe Trump’s “probably 100% tariff” on U.S. gold imports tomorrow without dentting the price of gold in the U.S. because there will be enough gold in the vault.
While there is usually no urgent need for physical gold, there is a need to ensure investors can be made, which Trump’s tariffs could undermine.
“Very few people have to do the delivery normally, but you always need to be able to deliver,” said Reade of the World Gold Council.
“But if you are suddenly worried now that you may have to pay import duties, then you don’t want your gold in London, then you need to include it in New York before New York is imposed,” he said.
Supply chain disruption
“Supply chains are broken due to this huge sucking sound, which is what the U.S. imports gold before potential tariffs,” Reid said.
A complex factor is the COMEX depositor Most are delivered through kilogram rodsHe added that this is usually only available in selected regions such as China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and India.
“The refinery has only limited capacity to produce a kilogram of rods,” Red said.
“Suddenly, everyone tried to grab a kilogram bar that was qualified to be placed in a Comex warehouse and shipped it to a New York-based one-kilogram bar, which meant other gold flows were interrupted,” he added.
London, commonly known as The terminal market of goldthe transformation has had a great impact.
“As the market has been transferring gold inventory from private London vaults to COMEX vaults, the availability of metals in London’s private vaults has been declining,” said Kavalis, director of Metals Focus of Cote of erts of ork of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock of ock
Large gold bars were also withdrawn from London to other refineries around the world, where they can melt and refine into kilowatts, because Standard gold bars stored in London are 400 ounces bars Instead of kilowatts.
Gold reserves in London vaults Data from the London Gold Bar Market Association showed that January fell for the third consecutive month. Gold reserves in January were 1.7% lower than in December.
Gold exports from Switzerland to the United States According to Reuters, January also rose its highest level in at least 13 years, citing Swiss customs data. Cavallis pointed out that Singapore has more gold than usual.
Reid said that just to resist these tariffs, gold has been shipped to the United States, “sucking gold from the rest of the system.”