US election a ‘make or break’ moment for Ukraine and future aid | Real Time Headlines

Tensions are likely to rise in Kyiv ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election – a vote that could determine the success or failure of continued aid to Ukraine.

NBC News’ latest poll shows “A deadlocked game” Between Republican Candidates and Former President of the United States Donald Trump and the Democratic candidate and current Vice President. Kamala Harris.

The big question for Kyiv is how much support and financial backing it will continue to receive after White House leader Joe Biden, who served throughout Russia’s war in Ukraine, leaves office.

After nearly three years of fighting, there is little doubt that Kyiv’s biggest military backers, especially the United States, are beginning to experience financial fatigue, despite continued public expressions of support for Ukraine from the White House and NATO.

It is widely believed that the Trump administration and hard-line Republicans will become more hostile to providing more military aid to Ukraine, severely inhibiting its ability to continue to fight back against Russia. However, even a friendly government in Kyiv under Kamala Harris, which has pledged continued support for the war-torn country, may have trouble convincing U.S. lawmakers to provide more financial support to Ukraine.

Kiev officials said the election was being closely watched amid concerns that future aid could be cut.

“Of course, we know that this is one of the possible scenarios that is extremely negative for Ukraine,” senior Ukrainian official Yuri Sack told CNBC last week.

“But for our part, we will do everything we can to continue to convince our partners in the United States to maintain funding and support at the same level because the alternative is not good for everyone involved, including the United States of America.” Additional.

“Of course, we are paying close attention to what is going on. We have our own opinions on the different candidates, but … we hope and believe that no matter who is the next president, the United States of America will continue to support Ukraine until We prevail until we reestablish a just peace.

Ukraine relies on its international partners to provide the military, humanitarian and financial assistance it needs to keep the country’s economy afloat and maintain its military capabilities to counter Russian forces entrenched in southern Ukraine and their slow advance in the Donbas region in the east.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, considered one of Ukraine’s most reliable trackers of external aid, calculates: From the outbreak of the war in February 2022 to August 31 this year, the United States has spent nearly $108 billion on military, humanitarian and financial assistancewhile EU member states and institutions (such as the European Investment Bank and the European Commission) spent a total of €161.11 billion ($175.47 billion on such aid).

U.S. generosity toward Ukraine has become increasingly difficult to convince U.S. lawmakers, The $61 billion aid package has been delayed for months and faced opposition from hardline Republicans It finally passed in the spring.

A key factor for Ukraine will be whether Democrats or Republicans dominate Congress after the election, which will be a determining factor in how much power a future president holds and the extent to which he or she can financially support or hinder Ukraine.

Donald Trump strongly suggested that he stop military aid to Kyiv after claiming that he would do so. He will stop the war within 24 hours of being electedwithout providing further details on how he would do so. Analysts say Trump is likely to view blocking funding as a way to force a halt to the war.

His running mate Vance has explicitly opposed further aid to Ukraine, arguing that the United States should encourage Kiev to reach a peace agreement with Russia and prepare to cede land to Moscow.

Economists at Berenberg say Trump immediately halting funding to Ukraine would be an extreme scenario, but clearly a possibility for a politician known for his unpredictability .

“While Europe is Ukraine’s largest donor, U.S. military aid is vital to Kyiv,” Berenberg said in emailed comments last month. “Unless Europe steps in quickly and issues 50 billion euros (54.1 billion euros) US dollars) so that the United States can buy the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine needs but cannot be produced in Europe, otherwise Putin could win a war of attrition and force Ukraine to submit.”

While Harris’ election win would be a relief for Kyiv, as she strongly pledged that her government would support Ukraine “as long as needed,” neither she nor Washington clearly defined what exactly her statement meant. Shocking thing.

A week before the presidential election, Western officials reportedly said Harris administration may have difficulty pushing major aid to Ukraine through Congress.

CNBC has reached out to Harris and the Trump campaign.

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized countries hope to provide short-term “Trump-proof” assistance to Ukraine before the November 5 election. Agreed in late October to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan that will be backed by frozen Russian assets.

The G7 said it would start disbursing funds by the end of the year, essentially before the new U.S. administration cancels the deal.

However, if the United States withdraws funding to Ukraine in 2025, Europe will be faced with the dilemma of supporting Kyiv’s future development, making it difficult to continue to use the proceeds of the large amount of frozen Russian central bank assets (the vast majority of which). —This is an urgent question.

“$50 billion now (agreed by the G7) sounds like a lot of cash, but it’s It is only equivalent to Ukraine’s 3-4 months’ funding needs.

He is among those urging that some $330 billion worth of Russian fixed assets be seized and distributed to Ukraine to help Ukraine continue to fight back against Russia, and he has also noted resistance from some EU countries who fear Russian retaliation for such a move. Some countries are more to be feared than others; now, Approximately US$191 billion All fixed assets in Russia are deposited in Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository.

Ashe said he would urge a future Trump administration to pressure the EU to “release all $330 billion in assets to Ukraine.”

“Ukraine can then fund its own defense and recovery,” he said, adding that the country might even commit to spending a significant portion of the money to buy defense equipment in the United States.

“The $150 billion spent in the United States over ten years is said to be the largest foreign defense purchase in U.S. history. It will save American taxpayers the cost of writing checks to Ukraine, secure thousands of U.S. defense industry jobs, and help win victory.