Trump vows to deport millions of people. Builders say this will drive up costs | Real Time Headlines

two presidential candidates Commitment to build more homes. There are promises to deport the hundreds of thousands of people who built them.

former president donald trump ensure “Initiating the largest eviction campaign in our country’s history” will hinder the growth of construction companies already facing labor shortages and promote record house prices Industry leaders, contractors and economists say the number is higher.

“This would be bad for the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability issues,” said Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group that considers foreign-born workers, regardless of their legal status, However, it is an “important and flexible source of labor” for builders, it is estimated that they Fill 30% of trade jobs Examples include carpentry, plastering, masonry and electrical work.

almost 11 million undocumented immigrants The latest federal data shows that as of 2022, the number of people living in the United States was down from a peak of 11.8 million in 2007. The industry is very high. Industry experts say rates are higher in Sunbelt states like Florida and Texas, and that rates are higher for residential construction than commercial construction.

For Brent Taylor, residential construction “has been a very, very difficult industry over the past few years, and it seems like it’s only going to get worse.” His five-person Tampa-based company hires subcontractors to do all the work labor, and if employees of these companies “show up at my place of employment because they work for that company, I don’t know if they’re legal,” he said.

Labor resources are already tight, and the U.S. construction industry remains Seeking to fill 370,000 vacant positionsaccording to federal data. If staffing is reduced further, “now I can only do 10 jobs a year instead of 20,” Taylor said. “Either I make half the money or I raise the price. Who pays for it at the end of the day? The homeowner.”

Trump did not elaborate on how The “whole-of-government” effort he proposed delete as many as 20 million people – far more than the undocumented population – would work, but he has made it the centerpiece of his housing pitch. The Republican candidate claims mass deportations will free up housing for U.S. citizens and lower home prices Few economists agree. Some analysts said the idea also raised logistical questions The cost will be “astronomical”.

Homebuilders are also highly skeptical that Trump will deliver on his promises.

“They didn’t think it was going to happen,” Stan Marek, CEO of the Marek Family of Companies, a Texas specialty subcontracting firm, said of industry colleagues. “You lose so many people that you can’t assemble a team to build a house.”

Bryan Dunn, senior vice president of Big-D Construction, a Southwest major based in Arizona, called the idea “that they could actually move so many people” out of the United States “almost laughable.” He said the proposal left those in the industry “trying to figure out the extent of political intimidation.”

But while Trump has a history of proposing outlandish ideas without seriously pursuing them — e.g. Buy Greenland —He also embraced other once radical policies Resetting the terms of political debate Despite fierce criticism and lawsuits. That’s especially true on immigration, and his administration’s on immigration. Embezzling money from the Pentagon Build a border wall and ban travel from several Muslim-majority countries, separated migrant children from their parents.

Trump pressed his deportation claims on the stump, sometimes making racist remarks such as Claims thousands of immigrants are being murdered Because “it’s in their genes.” This month, he accused immigrant gangs of “invading and conquering” cities such as Aurora, Colorado. Local authorities denysay they need federal aid, but don’t want any part in mass deportations. still, recent opinion polls There is widespread support for deporting people who enter the United States illegally.

“President Trump’s mass deportations of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer, but will prevent Americans from having to pay for it for years to come,” Tyler Rogers, a spokesman for the campaign’s Republican National Committee, said in a statement.

Trump campaign press secretary Carolyn Leavitt said in a statement that the former president’s remarks about genetics were “clearly a reference to murderers, not immigrants.”

Tobin said NAHB does have concerns about the eviction proposals but is participating in both activities. it Called policy makers “Let the builders build” By relaxing zoning and other regulatory barriers and improving developers’ access to financing.

“It’s 11 o’clock on the immigration rhetoric,” Tobin said. “We must have serious conversations about immigration policy and reform in this country, and we can’t delay it any longer.”

Marek, who have long advocated Reform is decades overdue for more ways for undocumented people to legally work in construction. As an employer, “I do everything I can to make sure everyone is legal,” he said, even as the industry’s thirst for low-cost labor has created a shadow economy He said he often uses The undocumented workers it relies on.

“We need them. They are building our houses – they have been for 30 years,” he said. “Losing workers will devastate our companies, our industries and our economy.”

There is evidence that foreign-born construction workers help control the housing market. one Analysis published in December 2022 The George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that U.S. metropolitan areas with the fastest-growing immigrant populations have the lowest construction costs.

“Despite rapid growth in housing demand, immigrant construction workers in Sunbelt metropolitan areas such as Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio have helped these cities maintain a housing cost advantage relative to coastal cities,” the authors write.

But builders actually need more workers. “The math just doesn’t exist” to withstand the blow of mass evictions, said Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at labor analytics firm Lightcast. “It’s going to be incredibly disruptive” and result in a “very, very significant hit to house building,” he said.

Private employers in this field have been adding jobs over the past decade, with Employment now exceeds 8 millionMore than 1 million people have been added since the pandemic began, according to payroll processor ADP. But as Hetrick points out, “the average high school student doesn’t have the ambition to do this job,” and the existing workforce is aging — Average Home Builder 57 years old.

Hetrick said undocumented workers may flee before the state’s deportation efforts, even though many have been living in the United States for more than a decade. He expects such a policy to also trigger an exodus of people with legal authorization.

“That’s exactly what happened in Florida,” he said.

Last year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties Discourage the hiring of undocumented workers. many Migrant workers leaving state in a hurry Even before the policy took effect, social media videos showed some Empty construction site.

“These laws show they don’t know what we’re doing,” said Luciano, a carpenter from Mexico who has been working on residential construction in South Florida for the past decade.

“No one would work under the conditions we have,” the 40-year-old said in Spanish, asking to be identified by his first name because he has lived in the United States for more than 20 years but lacks legal immigration status. He said workers on the site “have an entry time but no exit time” and often work up to 70 hours a week in rain and sweltering heat.

Taylor recalled the panic among other Florida builders at the onset of the statewide crackdown, but said he assured them, “Look, just give it six months. We don’t have enough people to enforce it, so They will be back.

Republican state Rep. Rick Ross, who voted for the measure, later acknowledged that Florida was unprepared for the instability it could cause, and Urge immigrants to Don’t run away and say the law “isn’t as bad as you heard.”

Taylor said some workers returned after realizing the policy was not strictly enforced: “Sure enough, things are more normal now.”

DeSantis’ office did not respond to a request for comment.

In 2010, when Arizona enacted what were then the nation’s strictest immigration restrictions, Dunn was working as a senior executive at a construction management company in Tempe. As the legislation was introduced, he said, “a lot of people moved away and never came back.”

By the time most of the laws were overturned in 2012, “Arizona had a bad reputation” relative to other states that were “much more open and less cumbersome to work with,” he said.

Dunn, a Democrat, said he “absolutely” supports Vice President Kamala Harris, but other construction industry executives are more divided. Malek, a “lifelong Republican,” declined to reveal how he voted but noted that “a lot of Republicans didn’t vote for Trump.”

Taylor also did not reveal which candidate he supported, but praised Trump’s ability to “get things done.”

“We’re dealing with a lot of other economic issues every day that have nothing to do with immigration reform,” he said. “I’m not a one-policy voter.”