U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event in Fayetteville, North Carolina, the United States, on July 18, 2024. This is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and her 15th visit to the state since taking office. state.
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Some experts say President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee sets the stage for a more tense and uncertain race in November
Biden Withdrew from Democratic top race on Sunday forcing him to drop out of school disastrous debate performance and Republican candidate Trump leads in polls.
Ian Bremer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, said Democrats faced an “overwhelming defeat” in November, but now they have a chance.
“They’ve turned (the race) around and President Biden is giving the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
Harris now finds himself in glideslope She will clinch the Democratic nomination, although she still needs to win a majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
Bremer said that while some other contenders may join the race, “it’s clear that Kamala Harris is the favorite” to be the nominee.
Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that if Harris wins the nomination, she will provide a “complete reset” for the Democratic Party.
“If Democrats can come together and speak with one voice at this convention, with energy and excitement, then they have a good chance of winning in November,” he said.
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” that Harris would be in the leading position in a matchup with Trump. “A strong position to win the upcoming elections.”
He will wait until after the Democratic National Convention to make a formal prediction.
Harris posted on social media platform X that she wanted to work “earn and win“Get the nomination while uniting the Democratic Party.
How Harris can help Democrats
According to experts who spoke to CNBC, Harris has many advantages over her former running mate.
Okun said that while Republicans have made progress on the economy, inflation and immigration, abortion is a prominent issue where she will have an advantage. As the first female vice president, Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues.
“The fact is that both Biden and Trump are too old to run and serve for another four years, and that’s now Trump’s biggest vulnerability,” Eurasia’s Bremer said.
A recent opinion polls It shows about 85% think Biden is too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans think Trump is too old.
“You’re going to see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more dynamic, more dynamic former prosecutor who can certainly perform very well on the debate stage,” Bremer added.
Bremer noted that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “wasn’t very likable as a retail politician … and that was a weakness for her.” He added that being a woman — the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father — is a challenge in America today. ——There are also some risks involved in running for office.
On the other hand, Signum Global policy founder and CEO Charles Myers told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that she may be better equipped than Biden to expel certain key groups, including “women, young people and black voters.”
“This is a brand new campaign. There is a new candidate and there is tremendous unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.
Market uncertainty is greater
The market has become increasingly Pricing for Trump’s VictoryHis presidency is expected to bring tax cuts and stronger tariff policies.
However, according to Myers, the race has descended into “complete chaos” and Harris will have a “real run for money” with Trump.
“I would be very cautious and cautious about assuming a Trump victory is imminent,” Myers said, adding that names and asset classes tied to a Trump victory may be viewed as having short-term risks.
Trump has said Harris will Easier to beat than Biden.
By the time of the Democratic National Convention, Myers said, Harris would have picked a running mate and possibly finalized the nomination, by which time she would likely be leading in the polls.
Okun said the two possible front-runners for Harris’ running mate are Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly because they are from key battleground states and are considered more moderate.
He added that if Democrats cannot unite the party’s moderate and progressive factions, they will lose to a Republican Party that is fully united around Trump.
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
