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HomeWorld NewsThe Dangers of Market Forecasting | Real Time Headlines

The Dangers of Market Forecasting | Real Time Headlines

Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 10, 2024 in New York City, United States.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

This report comes from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Nasdaq outperforms
US stocks
Ending Friday mixed. this S&P 500 Index It’s flat, Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, falling for the seventh consecutive trading day Nasdaq Index Add 0.12%. shares Broadcom Jumped 24% to enter trillion dollar market capitalization club. European regional Stoke 600 fell 0.53% to End the week in redending a three-week winning streak.

OpenAI talks openly about Musk
OpenAI co-founder Elon Musk pushes to create a new The company’s profit structure In 2017, OpenAI accused blog post. However, “when he did not gain majority ownership and full control, he left,” OpenAI wrote alongside a screenshot of Musk’s email. In November, Musk asked a federal court to block OpenAI Convert to a for-profit entity.

Tech companies donate to Trump
Tech companies with history of conflict with U.S. President-elect Trump Donate to his inauguration. Yuan The company confirmed to CNBC that it donated $1 million, Amazon According to reports, plans are being made to donate an equal amount of wall street journal OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will also make a matching personal donation, according to the company.

South Korean president impeached
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol impeached on saturday 204 members of Congress voted in favor of the motion. Prime Minister Han Deok-soo acting president. On Sunday, Han Hanyu had a phone call with US President Biden, and the US Treasury Department said it would continue Monitor the market.

(PRO) Follow rates and prices
Interest rates and inflation are This week’s focus. The Fed’s rate-setting meeting ends on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge because it reflects how consumers actually spend their money – will be released on Friday.

bottom line

The near-certain way to figure out where the market is going is to make a prediction and then ignore it.

this S&P 500 Index It likely fell 0.6% last week, snapping a three-week winning streak. But the stock is still up nearly 27% this year, surpassing the 6,000 mark for the first time during its rise.

That’s well beyond what top financial strategists were predicting at the end of 2023, notes CNBC’s Pia Singh. JPMorgan Chase Chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for example, expects the broad-based index to close at just 4,200 points this year. Even the most optimistic forecast, chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, has a target of 5,200. Oppenheimer – Has not captured the strong rally in stocks this year.

That’s why even though market strategists expect the S&P to end 2025 at 6,630 (based on the average SEC forecast) CNBC Market Strategist Surveyinvestors should take it with a pinch of salt. To be sure, there is positive sentiment among investors as Trump attaches great importance to the stock market as a barometer of his presidency, steadily easing monetary policy, and the prospect of lower corporate taxes. But in the markets, as in life, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

As a result of Trump’s promised tariffs and the tit-for-tat trade war that will ensue, inflation could return, like measles and possibly polio in the United States. In fact, inflation has “looked a bit stagnant,” he said Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Still, despite my skepticism about predictions, if Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian has proven to be a prescient market forecaster. Imagine that by the end of 2025, the S&P will reach Subramanian’s target of 6,666.

—CNBC’s Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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