TOPSHOT – On November 29, 2024, militants opened fire on Syrian Army troops in the Rashiddin area on the outskirts of Aleppo.
Becker Alkason | AFP | Getty Images
The more than 50-year-old Assad dynasty dictatorship was on the brink of collapse on Sunday, with rebels seizing the capital Damascus in a lightning offensive that swept through the country’s largest city in days.
The Russian- and Iranian-backed government’s defense forces have been struggling to stem the rebel advance, which quickly swept into the northern city of Aleppo last week, breaking a years-old stalemate. The attack was led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies, which have been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations Security Council, and they have expanded their operations into the south of the country and now occupy Hama. and important cities such as Deir ez-Zor.
“We declare the city of Damascus free from the rule of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad,” HTS senior commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani said in a WhatsApp post. “To everyone around the world For displaced people, a free Syria awaits you.”
CNBC could not independently verify local developments.
President Bashar al-Assad, who took office in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, is currently missing. Multiple media reports, which CNBC could not independently confirm, said he had fled Damascus.
Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi Jalali said he remained at home and was ready to support the continuity of governance in Syria.
“We believe that Syria belongs to all Syrians and all citizens, and that this country can become a normal country with good relations with its neighbors without joining any regional alliances or blocs,” he said, according to the NBC News report. “This matter lies with whatever leader the Syrian people elect, and we are ready to work with them and provide every possible convenience.”
U.N. special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen on Sunday emphasize It was a “watershed moment” in Syria’s civil war, calling for “stable and inclusive transitional arrangements.”
White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savitt said some countries had evacuated their embassies during the conflict in Damascus and that outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden was “closely monitoring” the incident and staying in touch with regional partners.
distract allies
After the militants arrived in Homs, they launched an attack on Damascus. Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said capturing Homs would pose a major challenge to the rebels, who must contend with a concentration of government forces and gain the support of the local pro-Assad Alawite community. support Wrote December 5th.
“What’s more, the rebel advance on Homs will test Russia’s red lines in Syria,” Idebi added. “So far, Russia has offered no serious military support to safeguard Assad’s losses at the hands of the rebels.” “While Russia has conducted some airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter the rebel offensive, it has not directly engaged Hama. This restraint reflects Moscow’s strategic calculation to avoid overreach. “
Pro-democracy demonstrations against the government’s authoritarian rule in March 2011 sparked Syria’s 13-year civil war and coincided with similar regional uprisings during the Arab Spring. Assad’s government has responded to protests in Syria with deadly force, leading to calls for his resignation, nationwide unrest and the rise of opposition groups. Separate peace talks between the United Nations and Russia, Iran, and Türkiye have yet to yield results.
The escalation in Syria comes as Assad’s allies Russia and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are increasingly distracted by their respective domestic wars, fighting in Ukraine and Israel respectively. The unrest in Syria has exacerbated the broader conflict in the Middle East, which was triggered by terrorist attacks in Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in October 2023, leading to a retaliatory military operation by the Jewish people in the Gaza Strip and the conflict with Israeli firefight.
“This lightning-fast offensive is a dramatic shift in the Syrian conflict and highlights the regime’s inherent weaknesses,” Wrote Natasha Hall, senior fellow at the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, further noted that “the fragile stasis collapsed” as “Assad’s allies Iran and Hezbollah were significantly weakened by Israel’s military offensive” and ” Russia has Ukraine in trouble and Georgia in turmoil.
In update US President-elect Donald Trump said on his “Truth Social” platform that Assad’s “protector, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is no longer interested in protecting him. Russia There was no reason to be there in the first place” They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine. “
Markets have been watching military developments for signs of impacts on supplies from the oil-rich Middle East, as well as further trade disruptions along key trade routes.
