Smoke rises after North Korea blows up sections of inter-Korean roads on its side of the border between the two Koreas, according to South Korea’s military, as seen from the South Korean side, October 15, 2024, in this screen grab from a handout video.
south korea defense ministry
Experts say the possible entry of South and North Korean troops into the Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to inflame a wider conflict between the two countries.
South Korea reportedly considering sending intelligence agents to Ukraine Yonhap News.
Previously, South Korea’s Defense Ministry told NBC News that North Korea had Send up to 12,000 troops Fight on the side of Russia.
Yonhap News Agency said South Korea could deploy military personnel from its intelligence services, “who could analyze North Korea’s battlefield tactics or participate in the interrogation of captured North Koreans.”
United States Wednesday Confirmed North Korean troops have been sent to Russia.
Although South Korea has not publicly confirmed or denied plans to deploy personnel to Ukraine, The country has reportedly issued a warning It will deliver weapons based on the level of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol said this also marked a departure from Seoul’s long-standing policy of not providing weapons to countries in conflict. It is said explain.
Experts told CNBC that South Korea is unlikely to authorize the deployment of troops in Ukraine.
“I don’t expect the Yoon government to approve the deployment of troops on Ukrainian soil for actual combat operations,” said Naryan Tuang, a researcher at the S. S. S. S. S. School of International Studies in Singapore.
Nach said Seoul’s deployment of observers would not cause a major escalation because Kyiv’s partners already have non-combat observers in Ukraine.
If Seoul deploys military personnel to help Ukraine provide intelligence, technical training, or even help interrogate North Korean prisoners of war, it will prompt other allies of Ukraine to send their own trainers or military support experts to assist Ukraine.
“The information we are seeing may be an effort to prevent North Korea from actually deploying troops from Russia to Ukraine. We don’t know yet what the outcome will be,” said Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at the U.S. policy think tank Rand.
Aoki said that if both sides send personnel, personnel from the two countries may come into contact, which may “make the situation more complicated.” But that will depend on how North Korean troops are deployed, she added.
That said such an incident would only be possible if North Korean troops broke through Ukrainian defense lines and encountered South Korean personnel embedded in Ukrainian forces. “In this case, South Korean troops would fire in self-defense, thus limiting the nature of such battles.”
Given the positions of Moscow and Pyongyang, such an engagement would have little political impact. deny north korean troops Being employed in the war.
South Korea’s concerns
Tensions on the peninsula have escalated in recent weeks, with North Korea Blow up connecting railways and roads on its side, After sending garbage balloons Entered South Korea earlier this year. It also accused South Korea of sending drones carrying propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang.
Despite rising tensions, experts say armed conflict is unlikely. “North Korea doesn’t want to fight on the Korean peninsula when some of its troops are in Ukraine fighting for other countries,” said RAND Corporation’s Aoki.
She emphasized that Pyongyang’s goal in supporting Russia is to work hard to deepen relations with Moscow in order to obtain what it needs from Russia, such as information on advanced weapons technology and combat experience.
“Pyongyang has judged that its backlash in support of Moscow will not affect the Korean peninsula,” RSIS’s Nah said. “I think Kim Jong Un views his relationship with Vladimir Putin in a very transactional light while at the same time being at war with the Korean peninsula. In a geostrategic island of irrelevance.”
