Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (right) shakes hands with former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during the presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on September 10, 2024.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris deadlocked Latest national NBC News pollTrump has been bolstered by a return of Republicans backing him after last month’s heated debate and subsequent poll deficit, as well as voters’ favorable assessment of his presidency.
Those are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows Harris’ popularity is down compared with a month ago after a big boost over the summer; Harris and Trump There is a huge gender gap in support; voters see abortion as the top driver of the 2024 vote.
“As summer turns into fall, any sign of momentum for Kamala Harris has stalled,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Howitt, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturf. . “It was a close game.”
McInturf said Harris’ “headwinds” have helped narrow the presidential field, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent a change from President Joe Biden and that voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s.
“She’s asking the incumbent party for re-election,” McInturf said of Harris.
Still, the poll highlights the uncertainty of the election (10% of voters said they might change their minds, and a small number of unclaimed voters are still on the fence), and it is believed that this presidential election will make voters’ minds clear. The proportion hit a record high. Their lives are “very different” and a major challenge for Harris and Trump. Third-party voting may also play a role – when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, Trump’s approval rating increases slightly, to a 1-point lead.
In a very balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could make the difference between winning and losing for either party.
“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she rise to this moment and fill the void that voters have for her?” asked Democratic pollster Horvitt.
“The challenge for Donald Trump is: Can he prove that the chaos and personal behavior that plagued so many during his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“Next month will tell whether candidates can meet these challenges,” Horvitt said.
In a new poll conducted from October 4 to 8, Harris received the support of 48% of registered voters in the head-to-head matchup, while Trump received the same 48%. Another 4% said they were undecided or would not vote for either option when forced to choose between the two major party candidates.
This is from NBC News September Pollthe results found that Harris led Trump by 5 percentage points, 49%-44%, although this result was within the margin of error.
Expanding the ballot to include third-party candidates also shows the shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll choosing Trump, 46% backing Harris, and a total of 7% choosing other candidates or saying they haven’t yet. Decide.
However, in September, Harris hold A 6-point lead in this expansion vote.
Given that close elections often come down to which party has higher voter turnout, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what might happen based on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — meaning slightly higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable voting environment for Democrats — meaning more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color going to the polls — these findings show Harris leading Trump among registered voters The general average is 3 percentage points, 49%-46%.
All of these results were within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
huge gender gap
48%-48%, the survey results are as close as possible. But there are huge differences in candidate support among different groups.
The poll found Harris ahead of Trump among black voters (84%-11%), young voters aged 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-41%) The biggest advantage.
Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without a college degree (65%-33%).
However, another striking feature of this election is the huge gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by 14 points (55%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 16 points percentage points (56%-40%).
Independent voters were largely split in the poll, with Harris receiving 44% support and 40% choosing Trump. More independents than other groups have yet to decide between Harris and Trump, or say they don’t want to choose either.
Harris’ popularity declines
Another big change in NBC News polling since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the major developments in an NBC News poll taken after Harris’ debate with Trump on Sept. 10 was that her approval ratings were up compared to earlier this summer, before she became the Democratic presidential nominee. Double-digit growth. Her ratings soared to 48% positive and 45% negative (net rating +3).
But in the latest poll, Harris’ approval rate is 43%, support rate is 49%, support rate is 49% (-6). The main factors for the decline are independent voters and young voters.
That’s not far off from Trump’s 43% positive, 51% negative score (-8) in the same poll. The positive rating is Trump’s highest rating since leaving office in an NBC News poll.
Views of Biden’s presidency lag behind Trump’s
Another storyline in the poll is the differing views voters have on the Biden and Trump presidencies — a key issue given the candidates’ efforts to cast themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters said Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, while 45% said Biden’s policies have hurt them.
The numbers are essentially the opposite of what Trump’s past presidencies were like: 44% of voters said the former president’s policies helped them, while 31% said the former president’s policies hurt them.
What’s more, looking back on Trump’s presidency, 48% of voters said they approved of the former president’s job performance. That’s higher than Trump’s job approval rating in NBC News polls during his presidency.
This is also in sharp contrast to Biden’s current approval rating of 43% in the polls.
When asked what they were more worried about — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first presidential term — 43% of voters said they were more worried Harris is following Biden’s path, and 41% of voters said they were more worried about Harris following Biden’s path.
“The fact that Harris is slightly behind on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to think that Biden’s policies are hurting their families, while Trump’s policies are helping,” said Democratic pollster Horvitt. their families.
Abortion is top motivating issue and Harris’ best issue
While most public opinion polls, including September National NBC News Pollwhich found that cost-of-living rankings were voters’ top concern, this survey asked a different question to get a sense of voter intensity and motivation ahead of Election Day: Is there an issue that you feel so strongly about that you’ll just vote for it? Or object to a candidate on this issue?
The top answers, with several allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democratic or constitutional rights (18%) and cost of living (16%).
The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including who can better handle some of the key issues voters consider top priorities.
Harris’s best issues compared to Trump are abortion (19 points ahead of Trump on the issue), health care (+10), and competence and efficiency (+5).
Trump’s top issues and qualities: handling the border (+25), handling the situation in the Middle East (+18) and handling the cost of living (+11).
On the key question of which candidate better represents change, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, but that’s down from her 9-point lead in September.
Other important poll results
Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will bring “big changes” to their lives. It was the highest response to an NBC News poll question since 1992.
As with presidential elections, there is a correlation between Democratic and Republican congressional preferences, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, and the same 47% want Republicans in power. The Democrats led by 2 percentage points in September, 48%-46%, within the margin of error.
Thirty-one percent of voters believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 64% believe it is on the wrong track. The share of voters who think the country is on the wrong track is the lowest in polling since August 2021, the last time Biden had positive job approval ratings in polls.
NBC News conducted a poll of 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 4-8, 898 of whom were contacted by cellphone. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
