Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, the United States, on July 13, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Affected by this, U.S. stocks are expected to receive a short-term boost attempted assassination former president’s Donald Trump Over the weekend, analysts said his chances of winning in November had increased.
US futures Rob Casey, a partner at market advisory firm Signum Global Advisors, said stocks rose overnight as investors reacted “relatively optimistically” to the prospect of Trump being re-elected as president.european scream box“.
Cryptocurrency markets also rise – and Bitcoin Bitcoin prices rose 5% to $63,000 on Monday on hopes that the outlook for the digital asset would become more positive under Trump’s presidency.
“Saturday’s events, if anything, are strengthening President Donald Trump’s case for winning the November election. I think that’s how the market is reacting,” Casey said.
Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, agreed, predicting a rebound in risk appetite in the new trading week.
“We think investors would agree with our assessment that an assassination attempt on Donald Trump would increase his odds of winning the presidential election,” he wrote in a report on Sunday.
Polls show Trump continues to lead Joe Biden One day after a shooting at a Pennsylvania Republican rally. Meanwhile, betting odds soar.
Biden’s support is already declining, even among his Democratic base, amid concerns about his cognitive abilities. Casey said the weekend events also provided a respite for Biden, who has been under pressure to step down, and all but guaranteed his candidacy in November.
Risk consulting firm BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, said in a report to CNBC that the probability of Trump winning the election has increased significantly, “This can be positive before the election because it reduces electoral uncertainty. But it added that any boost was likely to fade.
Guillaume Menuet, head of investment strategy and economics for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Citi Global Wealth, agrees. He told CNBC that events over the weekend could drive markets “for a few days” before investors’ attention returns to the real economy.
“These events, while unfortunate in terms of political change, do not really change the direction of global markets and the global economy,” he said on Monday.
In fact, with the Nov. 5 election still more than three months away, Casey said it was too early to judge the long-term impact on the market, as a series of political events could exacerbate tensions in the coming months. Volatility.
During this period, one person died and two others were seriously injured. saturday attackThat prompted Trump and Biden to call for calm and unity amid concerns about growing political divisions and the potential for further violence.
“It’s probably too far between now and November to be particularly bearish or bullish. Frankly, what we’ve seen over the past month or so and what we’re likely to see in the coming months is straight-up volatility, “Casey said.
What a Trump win means for markets
David Roche, a veteran investor and president of Quantum Strategies, said in a note on Sunday that a Trump presidency is now his prediction, given his protectionist geopolitical stance. That would be bad news for the market.
“Tariffs will hit U.S. inflation and economic growth. The Fed rate cuts will end. It will mean the end of the bull market,” he said.
Meanwhile, Nomura’s Gareth Nicholson said in a note to CNBC that a Trump presidency would mark a “negative risk factor” for Asian equities overall, while Goldman Sachs In a report on Friday, it said, European markets will also be hit New trade policy uncertainties under the new Trump administration.
