Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange opened the bell in New York City on February 12, 2025.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Stock market investors have enjoyed lofty annual returns over the past two years. However, investment analysts say “three tops” may not be available in 2025.
S&P 500 Stock Market Index yield Investors have 23% returns in 2024 and 24% in 2023 (25% and 26% respectively, Have a dividend)
U.S. stocks have a historically rare return of more than 20% for three consecutive years. This only happened once in the late 1990s, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Are we expecting a 2025 S&P 500 3-pointer? In short, no,” Rennes wrote in a market commentary on Wednesday.
U.S. stock markets have provided average annual earnings About 10% Since 1926 according to Go to Dimensional, Asset Manager. According to McKinsey analyze.
“We have been spoiled for the past two years,” said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Twenty percent gains are not the norm,” Cox said. “20 percent gains are the exception.”
What ruined the party?
While history is not a boon, there is reason to think the stock market is underperforming in 2025, Cox said.
First, there are many uncertainties that can negatively affect the stock market, including tariff and Potential rebound in inflationRenn said. one Bond yields surge Wren wrote in a market commentary that it may also bring headwinds. (Higher yields may undercut demand for U.S. stocks.)
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In addition, the technology company Already the main driver of the S&P 500 return Cox said in recent years, but may not have achieved the same performance this year.
Technology stocks Suffered in late JanuaryFor example, concerns about Chinese artificial intelligence startups (DeepSeek) have weakened major U.S. players. These stocks have Recovered to a large extent Since then, however.
Overall, a rosy backdrop of steady economic growth and consumer spending, coupled with relatively low unemployment, could boost the S&P 500 by about 12% in 2025, Wren wrote. That would be a little better than the long-term historical average, he said.
“So don’t be disappointed,” Fren wrote. “We think investors should be optimistic.”
However, investors should not let high expectations cloud judge market risks.
The current environment is an environment where investors should “prioritize portfolio balances” and long-term investors should make sure their portfolios meet their goals, she said.
