Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro raises his hand during a mass rally called by supporters in Caracas, Venezuela, July 18, 2024.
Alfredo Lasry R | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will seek a third term in office on Sunday in a vote seen as the South American country’s most public campaign in more than a decade.
Analysts believe the presidential election could set Venezuela on a path to major change – if Maduro is willing to give up power if he loses the election.
Some opinion polls show indicated Preference for opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat. The 74-year-old is widely seen as the only contender capable of preventing Maduro from serving a third six-year term.
González was elected by the country’s main opposition party, the Democratic Unity Platform, after María Corina Machado and Corina Yoris were disqualified.
Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has governed Venezuela since 2013, with the former union leader coming to power after the death of his mentor Hugo Chavez. His 2018 election victory was widely seen as an unfair contest, given that many prominent opposition parties were barred from participating.
Maduro and his political allies have stepped up references to the prospect of post-election violence in recent weeks, sparking international alarm.
“The fate of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro reportedly said at a rally earlier this month. Associated Press. “If we want to avoid a bloodbath or a fratricidal civil war sparked by fascists, then we must secure the biggest electoral victory ever.”
Army soldiers stand next to the ballot box during a military parade showing electoral materials used in the presidential elections in Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas, July 24, 2024. A presidential election will be held today.
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The White House expressed concern on Thursday about threats of violence in Venezuela’s presidential election and urged Maduro to commit to a peaceful outcome regardless of the outcome.
Asked at a press conference whether Maduro might have manipulated Sunday’s vote, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said it was difficult to know how the situation would unfold but that the United States wanted to “make clear to Mr. Maduro that we We’re watching, we’re watching closely.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also urged Maduro to respect the results, telling international news agencies that he was “frightened” by Venezuelans’ recent rhetoric. Reuters reports.
The Brazilian president added that Maduro “needs to understand that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.”
Power shift?
“Based on their own exit polls, the opposition is likely to declare victory and push for regime change, ushering in a period of heightened political tension and uncertainty before taking office,” said Andre Masuko, a research analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Expect.
“However, we do not expect the Maduro regime to be overthrown. His tight control over state institutions, including the security forces, judiciary and the National Electoral Council (CNE), will serve to help him stay in power,” he added.
Masuko said the Economist Intelligence Unit expects an increase in mass protests and violence domestically to trigger social unrest and instability in the coming months.
“We therefore do not rule out the possibility of Mr. Maduro accepting defeat and subsequently allowing a transition of power, although this would still exceed our baseline forecast,” he added.
Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and opposition leader Maria Collina Machado in Maracay, Zulia state, Venezuela, July 23, 2024 A Venezuelan flag was held at a campaign rally in Bo.
Raul Grove | AFP | Getty Images
Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has been plagued by political and socioeconomic crises for years.
Venezuela’s gross domestic product shrank by about three-quarters between 2014 and 2021, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, even as the country’s economy expanded in recent years. In April, the International Monetary Fund said it expected Venezuela’s real GDP growth rate to reach 4% in 2024.
Over the past decade, more than 7.7 million people estimated The move away from the country in search of better prospects reflects the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history and one of the world’s largest displacement crises.
United Nations Refugee Agency explain About 20% of the country’s population has fled the country since 2014 amid rampant violence, gang wars, soaring inflation and shortages of food, medicine and basic services.
Maduro’s government seeks to blame the country’s economic collapse on the United States and various international sanctions analyst points out that Venezuela’s vicious cycle began long before the sanctions were imposed in 2019.
Immigration crisis ‘top priority’
Eileen Gavin, principal analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said Venezuela’s migration crisis is “top of mind” ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
“There are good reasons to want to end Venezuela’s severe political polarization and economic crisis and find pragmatic solutions to the sanctions situation,” Gavin said via email.
She added: “The Biden administration’s recent policy toward Venezuela — which (focuses on) renegotiations aimed at restoring competitive politics and the gradual lifting of sanctions — is consistent with this ‘pragmatic’ agenda.”
“We therefore expect the current approach to continue – assuming there is no violence in the country. Likewise, it is not in Maduro’s interest to allow serious violence.”
