On June 30, 2024, demonstrators participated in a rally against the far right after the results of the first round of the French parliamentary election were announced at Place de la République in Paris.
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“We are afraid of what might happen,” Amer, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.
The vote is being closely watched by all sectors of French society to see whether the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) can achieve an initial victory in the first round of voting, or whether centrist and left-wing parties can frustrate the election. Opportunities for political parties to enter government.
“It’s a very, very tense moment. It’s the first time the far right has won in the first round (first round of voting). So it’s a very big thing,” said therapist Amer. Will vote for the left-wing New Popular Front supplement.
“We are very anxious, we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell those who don’t vote to vote, and trying to convince those who vote for the far right that they are not a good answer (to France’s problems).”
France’s far-right RN rejects the label of “extremism”, saying it represents French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with the French political system led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.
But opponents and critics of the RN warn that France is on the brink of political disaster if an openly anti-immigration, nationalist and Eurosceptic party wins a majority in this snap election. Macron calls This comes after his party suffered a crushing defeat by the far right in June’s European Parliament elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now had a “moral responsibility” to stop the party’s advance.
For young, left-leaning voters like Amer, the RN’s surge in voter polls, and the fact that it won the most votes in last weekend’s first round of elections, are worrying developments that raise concerns about French society. Cohesion is worried.
“I’m worried about the future of this country. I think things are getting worse,” said Amer, who preferred to give only her first name because of the sensitivity of the situation. “It’s like a civil war. I hope it doesn’t get to that point, but people won’t mix together anymore and will be afraid of each other. It’s very scary.”
The snap election has sharply increased political polarization in the country, as polls ahead of the final round of voting on Sunday showed deep divisions in the country.
The results of the first round of elections showed that the far-right RN won 33% of the vote, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) won 28%, and the party alliance supporting Macron (Ensemble or Together) won 20% of the vote. .
On June 30, 2024, the results of the first round of the French parliamentary election were announced in Nantes, western France, and left-wing supporters reacted.
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Since the results of the first round of voting came out, center-right and left-wing parties have made every effort to prevent RN from advancing to the second round of voting, with the aim of preventing the party from gaining a parliamentary majority at all costs. Centrist and left-wing parties have joined forces to form the so-called “Republican Front”, withdrawing candidates from many constituencies where one of their candidates was better positioned to defeat the Republicans.
By providing voters with tighter options and fewer choices, the Anti-Far-Right Front hopes voters will vote for non-registered nursing candidates. Whether it will be effective remains to be seen, with analysts noting that French voters may not accept guidance on how to vote or who to vote for.
The election was a mess
Sunday night’s final results – the result of a snap election that Macron does not need to declare – will show how difficult it will be to build consensus in the future of national politics and government.
There is also uncertainty about how the country will react to the results. France is no stranger to civil unrest, as the “yellow vest” anti-government movement has spread widely in recent years and there have been street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.
France’s interior ministry appears to be bracing for more trouble after Sunday’s polls, Around 30,000 police officers reportedly prepared to be deployed across France on Sunday night Fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin reportedly said that 5,000 police officers would be on duty in and around Paris to “ensure that the far right and far left do not exploit the situation to create chaos.”
French police forces have at times been accused of harsh tactics against demonstrators during previous unrest. In 2019, water cannons and tear gas were fired at “yellow vest” demonstrators.
On June 30, 2024, after the National Alliance won the first round of snap elections in Paris, France, demonstrators gathered at Place de la République to protest against the rise of right-wing movements and tensions increased.
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A member of the French Gendarmerie, which is responsible for law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that “the French elections were a mess” and that “public divisions in France have rarely been so blatant.”
“People’s opinions are becoming more and more divided,” the military policeman, who requested anonymity due to the nature of his job, told CNBC: “You can see that everywhere in daily life.”
The 40-something official, a father of three and a right-leaning voter, said the polarization of French society was “very worrying but unfortunately for the ‘diversity’ of our society normal.
“More and more people with different values ​​and educational backgrounds are being forced to coexist, which is clearly not going to work,” said the official, who works in Bordeaux in southwestern France.
“I worry about the future of our country because we are too generous to people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to our society, and that won’t last long.”
The police officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, regardless of which party received the most votes.
“There will be civil unrest no matter who is elected, this is France and the people express themselves.”
possible civil unrest
Political experts agree that the current frenzied atmosphere in French politics and the antagonism between major electorates are factors for further civil unrest.
“You’ve got all the secrets of a hyper-polarized political situation, and of course that translates to civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.
“If only 33-34% of people vote for the far right, it means that others are wary of it or completely opposed to it, so this will be reflected at all levels of politics – institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, And there will also be a very polarized society, and young people, minorities, women, especially feminists will be very worried,” he said.
Mariel does not underestimate the potential for violence in the streets if a far-right party is elected to government. “We are not there yet. But if you adopt very unpopular, very confrontational and very hostile policies towards certain groups, you will have massive demonstrations that will lead to riots in the streets,” he said.
unknown entity
Like other far-right parties in Europe, National Rally exploits voters’ insecurities around crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. RN 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella Tell voters he will “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle crime But he and party leader Marine Le Pen have backed away from some of their tougher promises and rhetoric, such as backing off on withdrawing France from Nato, and softened the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.
Bardera said he still supported arms shipments to Ukraine but not the deployment of ground troops, as Macron has suggested.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella during the last rally before the June 9 European Parliament elections at the Dome-Palais de Sports in Paris on June 2, 2024 .
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Even if the National Assembly wins government, it is uncertain how many of the party’s policies will be implemented. Ahead of the second round of voting, the “Republican Front” also seemed confident that its strategy of damaging the Republican vote share was working.
A poll published by Ifop It said on July 3 that if such a choice appeared on Sunday’s ballot, voters might be inclined to support Macron’s centrist or left-wing candidate rather than the RN candidate. However, if the choice is between far-left and far-right candidates, the picture is more nuanced, showing how divided the vote is.
Analysts predict that the RN is less likely to win an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but it may still get the most votes, causing a hung parliament, causing a headache for Macron and bringing consequences to French politics. Uncertainty.
“The political landscape is in disarray and can’t really function anymore, at least according to the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC on Thursday.
“We are in a situation that is so far removed from our traditional and political habits that it will be difficult for every stakeholder to adapt to this new situation.”
