In this set of photos taken in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris (left) speaks during a campaign event in Rochester on August 18, 2024, and Republican presidential candidate Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event on August 19, 2024, in York.
Associated Press
A measure of economic pain with a proven track record in predicting elections is leaning toward a Kamala Harris victory, but it appears to be strained heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
this “Pain Index” It has correctly predicted 15 of the past 16 White House races, including every presidential race since 1980, according to analysis by research firm Strategas.
The index currently stands at 7.02, below levels Strategas found to be consistent with incumbent parties losing elections. This number accounts for Unemployment rate fell slightly As Friday’s jobs report showed, growth in August was 4.2%.
According to Strategas, the incumbent party (in this case, Harris’s Democrats) would need to be below 7.353 in October to come out on top. The firm found this level through exclusive analysis of the pain index needed for the current ruling party to retain power, based on history.
In other words, a reading below that threshold essentially means voters are not “pained” enough on economic issues to launch the incumbent party.
In addition to falling unemployment gasoline price Daniel Clifton, director of policy research at Strategas, said the moves would also help control economic woes to aid Democrats. Still, he called the race “extremely close” in a note to clients on Monday.
Clifton’s comments in advance Tuesday night debate between Harris and Republican Donald Trump. The event is hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia and is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET.
“Given the intensity of this campaign, we’re seeing them debate and the stakes are high,” he said.
Misery Index trackers will get their next update on Wednesday, with the August Consumer Price Index due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the gauge, which tracks price changes for a broad basket of goods and services, to rise 2.6% compared with the same month last year.
This will mark the decline 2.9% An annual growth rate was recorded in July. It also reflects a broader decline in annual inflation from the runaway levels early in the pandemic. (The Federal Reserve is responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy. 2% target annual price growth).
In turn, the misery index has fallen sharply in recent years as the pace of annualized inflation has slowed. It is worth noting that last year’s misery index was still above the 7.353 threshold.
But Harris may now face challenges if concerns surrounding Labor market cooling portends rising unemployment. Although the unemployment rate fell slightly in August, market participants friday panic The number of jobs rose less than economists expected this month.
