Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) enters the hall during a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (not pictured) in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11, 2024.
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Iran has been one of Russia’s few staunch allies in the war against Ukraine, but Tehran now faces pressure to indirectly confront its old enemy Israel on two fronts.
Under pressure – but still defying the odds Analysts told CNBC that Iran may begin to turn to Russia for help, given that Iran needs stronger air defense capabilities and military intelligence to detect a much-anticipated but yet to be realized direct Israeli attack on Iran.
Russia is fully capable of providing Tehran with such capabilities, but the extent to which it can help the Islamic Republic remains uncertain.
“I absolutely believe that the Iranians have a lot of concerns about the Russians offering them something,” Bilal Y. Saab, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a think tank, told CNBC on Thursday. High expectations.
“So if Russia were to abandon this, it would have consequences not just for its relationship with Iran, but for any other partners, such as China,” he said.
“They have to maintain some kind of reputation that they’re good at it, so I have medium to high expectations that they’re actually going to provide them with what they need. Now, do they provide it for them everything They need it, but no one knows it.
Saab said Russia was unlikely to intervene militarily in Israel on behalf of Iran because Russia was already “in a difficult position over Ukraine.”
“The risk of confronting the United States on Iran is also too great… so I think they are more likely to stay on the sidelines and try to help from as far away as possible,” he said.
CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin and Iran’s Foreign Ministry for comment but has not yet received a response.
“Strategic Alliance”
On October 11, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) met in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.
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Arms transfers between the two allies led the United States to describe Iran as Russia’s “biggest military supporter” despite Both countries deny transfers of drones and missiles. However, Tehran admitted to sending drones to Russia before the war began.
Russia has also denied using drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, although Iranian-made drones have repeatedly damaged Ukraine’s power grid, military targets and civilian buildings during the conflict.
At the same time, Tehran has turned to Russia to help build its own military capabilities, seeking to purchase advanced Russian air defense systems and various fighter jets, It is reportedalthough details about the delivery of such hardware stay hazy.
“Iran’s supply of drones to Russia, and its recent launch of missiles in Ukraine, mark a major evolution in Russia’s relations with Iran. To some extent, the war itself has also contributed to the already burgeoning Russia-Iran relations, pushing The development of relations between Russia and Iran. noted in an analysis earlier this month.
They noted that in return for Iran’s support, Russia has enhanced Iran’s military capabilities in multiple areas: “Iran has made significant progress in acquiring advanced conventional weapons from Russia, allowing it to achieve some of the long-term goals of its defense officials.” 2023 Year, Tehran safe deals for Su-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 trainers and Mi-28 attack helicopters, but only the Yak-130 has been delivered so far.
Russia has been providing Iran with “unprecedented military and technical support, transforming relations between the two countries into a comprehensive defense partnership.” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said by the end of 2022. “This partnership poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to Iran’s neighbors in the region,” he said at the time.
Fast forward to October 2024, and as the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia’s interest in bolstering Tehran’s military capabilities may wane, and Iran’s ability to provide weapons to Russia may now be limited.
Tehran is indirectly fighting its arch-enemy Israel on two fronts, through its regional proxies – Hamas and Hezbollah – which have come under intense and sustained Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon respectively, following the deaths of these militant groups. , they look severely weakened.
On October 1, 2024, in Tehran, Iran, Iranian protesters chanted anti-Israel slogans and burned the Israeli flag to celebrate Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
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These factions, along with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, form what Tehran calls the “axis of resistance” that Iran backs to oppose Israeli and U.S. influence in the region. Iran and Russia are largely linked by a shared antipathy toward the United States and a desire to establish a “new world order.”
The deepening economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries may become clearer this week when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia.
Both countries have said they are close to signing a “strategic partnership agreement” – negotiations for which will begin in early 2022 – and could be finalized at the forum. What this collaboration will bring remains to be seen.
Alliance, with restrictions
Given Russia’s military, economic and geopolitical interests in the Middle East, Russia may watch with caution the expansion of Israeli military operations in the Gaza enclave and Lebanon.
To date, it has maintained generally good relations in the region, including with archrivals Iran and Israel, and has deepened strategic ties with Syria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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As a result, fighting between Israeli and Iranian proxies could begin to infringe on Russian interests in the region.
The most recent example was Israel’s October 3 bombing of Iranian forces near Syria’s Khmeimim air base, which has been operated by Russia since it supported the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war a decade ago.
Analysts said it was unclear what Russia would do to support Iran if a broader, more direct war broke out between Iran and Israel, and they questioned the depth of the alliance, given that Moscow is already involved in the war in Ukraine, which is The war was a serious war.
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is beginning to affect Russian interests in the Middle East and threaten a range of Russian and Iranian projects,” said Nikita Smakin, an Iran expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs. analysis said on Monday.
“Nonetheless, Moscow prefers to adapt to the changing situation rather than intervene directly. Russia cannot and will not save Iran in its confrontation with Israel and the United States,” he noted.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right) welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) at the Yamama Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on December 6, 2023.
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Smakin said Moscow’s war in Ukraine meant it had “no time” to start another war, adding that Russia would only be indirectly involved in a conflict with Israel if the end result was to weaken the United States.
“Russia can seek to support Iran in the following ways: supply “Providing weapons to Iranian proxy forces, including Hezbollah and the Houthis,” Smakin said. However, for the Kremlin, it would be more logical if such deliveries would harm the United States rather than Israel. “
