Investors are heading into a shortened trading week with a cloudy outlook for January and a looming jobs report. Stocks got off to a mixed start in January, ending lower on a choppy first trading day, but posted strong gains on Friday. On top of that, the “Santa Claus” rally, where the stock market rises on the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the next, failed to materialize – an ominous sign for the start of 2025 , which had previously experienced an unusual rebound. Now, investors are carefully watching what happens during the rest of the month, as historically this sets the tone for the rest of the year. The Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that 14 of the past 18 post-presidential election years have followed January’s direction, with every declining January since 1950 occurring in a bear market, flat, or 10% correction. Before. Next week will also wrap up the first five trading days of January – an early gauge of stock market moves this month. “The first thing investors think about is, ‘What does a disappointing Santa Claus rally mean for the first five trading days of January?’ and, ‘What does the first five trading days of January mean for the entire month? “What does this whole month mean for the rest of the year?” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “I do think January is going to be a big read all year long,” Stovall added. .SPX 5D mountain The S&P 500 posted losses for the week despite gains on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5% each. As is customary, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on Thursday, January 9, to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter. The last time the New York Stock Exchange was closed to honor a former president was in December 2018, following the death of George H. Bush. December Employment Report Next week will also bring the December employment report, which is one of the last key data before the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of this month. The labor report and inflation data later this month are likely to clarify the path for rate cuts this year. The pace of job creation in the U.S. economy was expected to slow last month. Economists polled by FactSet expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 160,000 in December. That was down from 227,000 last month. FactSet expects the U.S. unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%. The data is unlikely to have a major impact on the central bank’s decision. The CME FedWatch tool shows that at the end of the January 28-29 meeting, the market finally expected the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates stable at about 90%, which is the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5%. An online report, or a weaker-than-expected report, could bring relief to investors seeking cooling in an otherwise resilient labor market. However, if the report is more popular than expected, it could disappoint investors and send stocks lower. Elsewhere, minutes from the December Fed meeting are also on the docket. “Yes, I think those two rate cuts have been factored in. What may not have been factored in is the possibility that they’re not going to cut rates at all, or they’re just going to cut rates once. So I think that’s the concern,” Stowe Wahl said. Ahead of the week All times on the calendar are Monday, January 6, 9:45 a.m. ET Composite PMI (December) 9:45 a.m. S&P Services PMI final (December) 10 a.m. Durable Orders Final Value (November) 10am Factory Orders (November) Tuesday, January 7 at 8:30am Trade Balance (November) 10am ISM Services PMI (December) 10am JOLTS Job Openings (11 November) Wednesday, January 8, 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (December) 2 p.m. FOMC Minutes 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (November) Thursday, January 9, 8:30 a.m. Continuing Unemployment Benefit Applications ( 12/28) 8:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims (01/04) 10 AM Wholesale Inventories Final Data (November) Stocks will be closed Earnings: Constellation Brands Friday, Jan. 10 8:30 AM December Payrolls AM. 10-point Michigan Sentiment Preliminary (January) Gains: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Delta Air Lines
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