Shoppers at DLF Promenade shopping mall in New Delhi, India on October 21, 2023.
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India’s economy grew only 5.4% in the second fiscal quarter ended in September, well below economists’ expectations and close to its lowest point in two years.
Economists polled by Reuters said the data rose 6.7% from the previous quarter, below expectations of 6.5%.
The Reserve Bank of India expects expansion of 7% during the period, which would be the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022.
In October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said Last monetary policy meeting The key agricultural sector remains “resilient” and is expected to perform well due to higher than expected rainfall and strong reservoir levels.
On the demand side, Khairif’s health sowing — or fall crops – coupled with continued momentum in consumer spending during the holiday season, bodes well for private consumption.
The Reserve Bank of India also noted in October that consumer and business confidence had improved and “external demand is expected to be supported by improved global trade volumes”.
In an interview with CNBC “Squawk Box AsiaBefore the GDP release, Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, predicted that India’s economy would slow down in 2025 but would not “collapse.”
She said Natixis’ growth forecast for India in 2025 was 6.4%, without clarifying whether that referred to the financial year or the calendar year, but added that the actual number could also be as low as 6%, which she believed was “not at all high”. Question, but unpopular. “
In addition, the Reserve Bank of India expects GDP growth in fiscal 2024 ending in March 2025 to reach 7.2%.
Asked how India’s economy would fare during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, Herrero said India was “not really at the center of the value chain restructuring that China has been doing.”
“If I were the Trump administration, I would start (considering tariffs on Vietnam). This is a more obvious example,” she noted.
She said China could produce products in India for Indian consumption instead of exporting products globally, so New Delhi could avoid being hit by tariffs.
