Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater in North Las Vegas, Nevada on October 31, 2024.
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Kamala Harris clue Donald Trump Shocking new data shows Iowa’s likely voter approval rating at 47% to 44% polling Published on Saturday night, just three days ago election day.
Harris’ advantage was within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error, but her lead reflected a 7-point increase in voter support for her since September.
The results of the Des Moines Register/MediaCom Iowa poll came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analysts predicted the Democratic candidate would defeat Trump in the state.
Neither candidate is campaigning in the state, where Trump has handily won the past two presidential elections since the primaries ended.
“It’s hard to say anyone saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Des Moines Register.
“She’s clearly jumped into the lead.”
Selzer & Co. surveyed 808 possible people voter Monday through Thursday in Iowa. Selzer’s firm is highly respected by pollsters, and her findings often have important implications for political strategists.
Harris’ lead in the polls comes from strong support from female voters, especially those who are older and politically independent.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Chronicle.
The poll found that 3% of respondents supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to support Trump. Kennedy is still on the ballot in Iowa.
The same poll in September showed Trump leading current Vice President Harris by 4 percentage points. President Trump Joe BidenIn June, support for the then-presumptive Democratic nominee rose 18 points.
Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.
The Republican campaign released a memorandum The poll was called an “outlier” on Saturday night.
The memo states that the new Emerson College A poll of likely Iowa voters released early Saturday showed Trump leading Harris 53% to 43%.
“Both women and men in Iowa support Trump, with women leading by 5 points, 51% to 46%, and men leading by 17 points,” Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. , 56% to 39%. “Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%. “
“The Des Moines Register is a clear anomaly,” the Trump campaign memo said. “The Emerson College poll released today more accurately reflects the reality of Iowa voters and is more transparent in its methodology.” .
This is a developing story, please check back for updates.
