On September 26, 2021, people voted for the German parliament (Bundestag) election at a polling station in Berlin, Germany.
Abdulhamid Hosbas | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Germans go to the polls in two eastern states on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany party expected to win state elections for the first time and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition suffering a crushing defeat a year before federal elections.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads the polls in Thuringia with 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with the Conservatives in Saxony, with 30-32%. A victory would mark the first time since World War II that a far-right party has the most seats in Germany’s state parliament.
11-year-old party unlikely to form state government Even if it does win, it will do so because it polls short of a majority and other parties refuse to cooperate with it.
But the AfD and another new populist party performed strongly Sahrawagenkneich Union (BSW), named after its founder, a former communist, would complicate coalition building.
“I just hope that we end up with a democratic rather than a right-wing coalition,” Naila Kissel said after voting in Jena, Thuringia.
Voting closes at 6pm (1600 GMT), when the first exit survey will be released.
The Alternative for Germany and the Socialist Party of Germany are both anti-immigration, Eurosceptic and friendly to Russia, and are particularly strong in the former communist-ruled east, where concerns about the cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine and immigration are deep-rooted.
fatal stabbing spree An Islamic State-linked incident in the western German city of Solingen ten days ago sparked concerns about immigration, especially immigrants, and criticism of the government’s handling of the issue.
“Our freedoms are increasingly restricted because of people who don’t fit in,” Bjoern Hoecke, Thuringia leader of the Alternative for Germany party, said at a campaign event in Nordhausen on Thursday. were allowed into the country.
My former history teacher was a Polarization diagram He calls Berlin’s memorial to Nazi Germany’s Holocaust of Europe’s Jews a “monument of shame” convicted Earlier this year, he was arrested for using Nazi slogans at a party rally.
“Political earthquake”
On Sunday, all three parties in Scholz’s federal coalition are expected to lose votes, with the Greens and the Free Democrats likely to struggle to reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
Part of the dissatisfaction with the federal government stems from the fact that it is an ideologically heterogeneous coalition plagued by internal strife. Analysts say the rout in the East will only exacerbate these tensions.
“The state election… has the potential to trigger an earthquake in Berlin,” Wagenknecht told a campaign rally in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia state, on Thursday.
Political analysts say Scholz’s coalition is unlikely to dissolve before the next federal election in September 2025, as none of the current partners expect a good outcome.
The BSW, which defines itself as socially conservative and economically left-wing, has gained momentum since its founding in January, posing a particular threat to the center-left Social Democrats led by Scholz.
The party is expected to win 12-20% of the vote on Sunday, which could put it in a strong position in both states. Its foreign policy views will make it an unlikely partner for any mainstream party at the national level.
The Alternative for Germany and BSW combined are expected to receive about 40-50% of the vote in the two states, compared with 23-27.5% nationwide, exposing the ongoing divide between East and West more than 30 years after unification. Disagreement.
Party loyalty is lower in the east, while affinity with Russia and suspicion of Germany’s democratic structures are higher.
Shrinking economic differences with the West and a recent series of high-profile multi-billion-euro investments Wafer manufacturing and the electric vehicle industry’s failure to cheers for the locals.
