Georgia elections give voters a choice between Russia or Europe | Real Time Headlines

Georgia’s parliamentary elections this weekend have been described as a “once in a lifetime” vote that will decide whether the country moves closer to Russia or the West.

Saturday’s vote is being closely watched to see whether the ruling Georgian Dream party can stay in power. Ousted from power by pro-Western opposition parties.

Pre-poll voter polls are considered unreliable because they are often commissioned or conducted by pro-opposition or pro-government groups. There is also the possibility that no party on the ballot will be able to form a government on its own, so a coalition will be needed.

Close observers of Georgian politics say Saturday’s election is a critical moment for the country, which, like other former Soviet republics, finds itself uncertain about its future aligned with Russia or the West and political polarization becomes apparent. A dilemma.

Ketevan Chachava, non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said: “All parties see the upcoming elections as a critical moment for Georgia’s future.” said in comments earlier this month.

“The ruling Georgian Dream party’s rhetoric against the West – whose founder Bidina Ivanishvili has called the West a “war party” and said it has forced Georgia and Russia into confrontation – has prompted pro-European groups, The alarm among international partners and observers underscores a broader battle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces,” she noted.

The Georgian Dream-led government has recently enacted policies that run counter to its previous ambitions to join NATO and the European Union, aligning instead with Moscow and introducing laws that critics and opposition parties decry as repressive, stifling media freedoms, civil society and sexual minorities. rights of the group.

introduced a Russian-style foreign influence laws May’s bill – and the brutal police crackdown on subsequent protests against it – was particularly controversial and seen as the clearest example of the “Georgian Dream” slipping towards a Kremlin-style style of governance.

Since then, the government has doubled down on Western influence on domestic politics, Says it will seek to ban all pro-Western opposition groups If it gets a constitutional majority in this weekend’s election.

Despite growing anti-Western rhetoric, Georgian Dream insists it still wants Georgia to join the EU, and its election posters feature the party’s logo and EU symbols.

The Georgian government’s backsliding on human rights and democratic principles has brought it into direct conflict with Washington and the European Union, which have imposed sanctions on Georgian officials and led to the suspension of Tbilisi’s accession talks and funding. As Georgia, it is rapidly falling out of favor Obtain EU candidate country status in December 2023.

European lawmakers warned this month that Georgia’s “democracy is at risk” and told Georgian Dream that it must “overturn undemocratic legislation in order to make progress on relations with the EU”. A statement from the European Parliament in early October stated.

The European Parliament noted that European legislators consider the upcoming parliamentary elections “to be decisive in determining Georgia’s future democratic development and geopolitical choices” and its ability to make progress on its candidacy for EU membership.

Analysts have generally described the Georgian election as a referendum “for or against Europe”, but it could also be seen as a vote for or against remaining in Russia’s sphere of influence and establishing closer geopolitical and economic ties with Moscow.

The specter of Georgia’s former Soviet overlords certainly looms large in this vote, with Moscow appearing to exert greater influence over the ruling Georgian Dream party in recent years, particularly since its incursions into the former Soviet republics and pro-Western Ukraine in 2022 moon.

After the war began, “Georgian Dream” did not join the West and the international community in imposing sanctions on Russia. Founder Ivanishvili viewed the election as a choice between peace and war, portraying the West as a “global war” Party,” which would plunge Georgia into a conflict with Russia, as he said, that’s what Ukraine did.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted on Monday that Moscow will be watching the outcome closely, noting that the Kremlin intends to exploit any Russia-friendly Georgian government “to enhance Russia’s strategic interests and Moscow’s geopolitical objectives of controlling Eastern Europe.” .

“The election results may determine whether Georgia abandons its long-standing policy of alliance with the West and instead deepens economic and political ties with the Kremlin in line with the increasingly pro-Kremlin stance adopted by the ruling Georgian Dream party,” ISW noted.

Meanwhile, Georgian Dream founder Ivanishvili sought to demonize the pro-Western opposition at a rally on Wednesday, telling pro-government supporters that if Georgian Dream wins the election, the opposition will ” To respond with the full and strict severity of the laws of war “to the crimes committed against the people of Georgia,” Reuters reportsbut did not specify what crime they committed.

Analysts say the increasingly polarized pre-election environment in Tbilisi is setting the stage for heightened tensions over the outcome, regardless of the outcome.

Another complicating factor is recent electoral reforms, which mean that the 150 seats in Georgia’s parliament will be distributed according to a fully proportional system, with parties needing to exceed a 5% threshold to win seats.

“Beyond the recent poll results, the move to a fully proportional electoral system makes it difficult to imagine an outright victory for the GD (Golden Dream) or an outright defeat for the opposition,” Tina Dorbaya of the Strategy and Strategy Center Dolbaia, Benjamin Shefner and Maria Snegovaya International Studies Last week’s analysis said.

“By this logic, the most likely scenario is for Tbilisi to form a coalition government that limits the powers of the governor. However, there are significant concerns about electoral fraud, including vote buying, ballot stuffing, carousel voting, abuse of state and administrative resources and deprive citizens living outside Georgia of the right to vote,” analysts noted.

“Moreover, even if civil society overcomes these obstacles on election day and the GD fails to secure a majority, Georgia’s political environment remains deeply polarized. If the opposition refuses to form a single bloc after the elections, the GD may remain the most powerful in parliament. Powerful political parties.