The European Central Bank is expected to lower its 2025 meeting on Thursday and reduce interest rates on Thursday because the target of traders is to measure how far the central bank is willing to stagnate.
Wednesday’s currency market is priced at 35 basis points for the January meeting, which shows that the central bank of the euro zone will reduce at least a quarter of points. Since the beginning of relaxation of monetary policy in June 2024, this will make its key interest rate (its key interest rate) reached 2.75 %.
Then, the market pricing suggested that the European Central Bank’s March and June meetings were subsequently reduced. The fourth was the last time to decrease. By the end of this year, the deposit facilities reached 2 %.
Even after the title, the expectations of rapid relief this year have been consolidated Euro area inflation The third consecutive month of December has increased. Due to the influence of the energy market, the expected rising rate will rise slightly, and the group’s business activities indicators will continue Weakness of manufacturing And milder Consumer confidenceEssence Economists by Reuters vote for investigation predict that the growth figures in the fourth quarter will show that GDP will only expand by 0.1 %, lower than 0.4 % in the third quarter.
Although the European Central Bank’s interest rate relocation this week is almost guaranteed, there are still several key issues. Its President Christine Lagarde may be asked during the press conference after her announcement, many of which It is related to the United States and its new leaders.
One question is whether the distance between the European Central Bank is suitable for its own monetary policy path and the world’s largest central bank (federal reserve). Holding rate on WednesdayEssence The price of the market only reduced the price of one -minute at a two -minute price at this year, because Forecast by the Federal Reserve member In December.
Some strategists suggest that the Federal Reserve Can only be issued onceAt least to step on the water, because it waits for more details of President Donald Trump’s actual policy Extreme trade threat With them Potential inflation effectEssence
Ragard admits that in an interview at the World Economic Forum last week, the difference Tell CNBC This is the result of different economic environments. Although the euro area has stagnated, the US economy has already Continue to grow with solid clip In a higher interest rate environment, many investors are Optimistic about the 2025 outlook Despite Trump uncertainty.
“We must check differentiation through the growth lens and the backup capabilities established in the United States. Our economic operation is fast … When we look at it, we can’t say that the same thing is the” “SQUAWK BOX EUROPE” said.
She said: “This difference does means that the pressure of inflation is more likely to last for a period of time in the United States.” She said that she predicted another Federal Reserve and then stopped, and the scope of reduction in Europe was larger.
Currency
The European Central Bank has repeatedly emphasized that it is willing to move towards the Fed and focus on its domestic sights on inflation and growth. However, the main impact of policy differences is that in foreign exchange, higher interest rates tend to increase the local currency.
This has strengthened the expectation euro Back to equality With green and put forward further strength One dollar is already bad In 2025. This is important to the European Central Bank, because the weaker currency will increase the cost of imported goods. Even if the central bank’s greater concerns are related to the current domestic service and wage inflation rate.
Lagarde faded the impact of this effect, telling the CNBC exchange rate “will be interested, and … may have the consequences.”
However, she also said that she was not worried about the inflation import from the United States to Europe, and continued to expect that the price increase would cool down in the target. The President of the European Central Bank added that the bullishness of the US economy is positive, “because the growth of the United States has always been a favorable factor in other parts of the world.”
Trade issue
Although the euro euro may be a factor that prompted the European Central Bank to reduce tax rates slightly cautious, Trump may also stimulate the global war -centered trade war, which further slows down the growth of the euro zone and creates more. Demand cutting.
The U.S. President has not re -proposed his idea of ​​general tariffs on the United States, and it has been zero. Responsibilities for China, Mexico and CanadaEssence However, in the speech on the World Economic Forum, he Blame the European Union Treating the United States “very unfairly” in trade, promised: “We will do something to it.”
Forvis Mazars’s chief economist George Lagarias said the trade war may undermine the global supply chain and Stock’s inflation and ensure that the European Central Bank has higher interest rates.
He told CNBC via email that “the inflation and interest rate risks of the euro area are definitely an upward space.”
“The expected company’s expected companies in the European Union have become tied and showing a trend. This is the main indicator predicted by the European Central Bank … the Fed is likely to be on the road of more hawks, so it is very different from the European Central Bank. Will risk risks.
He said that the European Central Bank may reduce the larger point rate. He said: “If we do see a higher tax rate, it will mean that the board of directors try to protect the core growth of the euro zone and ensure that this political uncertainty France and Germany Or the loose fiscal policy in Italy will not lead to a sharp increase in borrowing rate. “
Raboresearch’s high -level macro strategist Bas Van Geffen also said that he “is less optimistic than the European Central Bank in terms of inflation prospects, or the market seems to” predict a decline in 2.25 % this year. “
He told CNBC: “When the European Central Bank incorporated Trump’s tariffs into the benchmark, we also hope that their inflation forecasting is higher.”
