Auto insiders’ top questions for both candidates | Real Time Headlines

DETROIT — The auto industry has become a key topic during the 2024 presidential election as Michigan — home to the Motor City and 1.1 million auto industry jobs — remains a key swing state.

Vice President Kamala Harrisformer president Donald TrumpTheir running mates and supporters have made Michigan a second home in recent weeks as campaigns try to win over undecided voters in the Great Lakes state.

Since 2008, every candidate who has won the state has won the White House, including Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden 2020.

“Michigan’s 16 electoral votes helped propel Otto into the debate,” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note on Monday. There are deep divergences between hyperactive and contradictory pronouncements and Harris’ quieter views, but there are also convergences.

While major automakers and suppliers have been reluctant to publicly endorse either presidential candidate, several company executives and lobbyists spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss how they are building support for each candidate. and preparations for a potentially divided Congress.

Industry executives and policy experts say electric vehicles, trade, tariffs, China, emissions regulations and labor are top issues for automakers.

Experts say some of her policies and potential appointments are unclear, as is her stance with the United Auto Workers, particularly Union President Sean Fearn He has been a sworn enemy of the automaker, which worries some.

If Trump wins re-election, auto industry officials largely expect him to return to the policies and actions of his first presidential term, but those positions may be more aggressive than before.

If he takes office, insiders expect he will roll back or roll back federal emissions and fuel economy tightening policies as he did during his first term; renew the fight between California and other states that set their own standards; and potentially create a critical push for the Biden administration. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 legislates funding changes.

Officials say it will be difficult for Trump to completely destroy the IRA, but he can eliminate or limit electric vehicle subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.

Insiders say automakers, suppliers and other auto-related companies are preparing for either outcome, as well as a divided Congress.

“There is no perfect situation. Both candidates offer some opportunities and challenges,” said a leading lobbyist and public policy expert for a major automaker. “Everyone in our industry has to consider a variety of scenarios.”

Some Wall Street analysts have speculated that traditional automakers—especially Detroit companies General Motors, Ford Motor Company and Chrysler parent company star ——Trump and the Republican Party’s control of Congress will be the biggest beneficiaries.

Electric vehicle startups, e.g. Rivian Cars and sobriety group Democrats would benefit even more if they win, largely due to anticipated plans involving electric vehicles and fuel economy requirements. even so Tesla CEO MuskContinue to support Trump.

Current requirements “Advanced Clean Vehicle II” The 2022 regulations require 35% of 2026-model vehicles (which will be rolled out starting next year) to be zero-emission vehicles. Battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and to some extent plug-in hybrid vehicles all meet zero-emission standards.

California Air Resources Board 12 states reported and Washington, D.C. have already adopted these rules; however, about half of owners will start with the 2027 model year. They are part of CARB’s advanced clean car regulations, which include mandating 100% of new car sales Zero-emission vehicles by 2035.

Starting this year, only 11 states and the District of Columbia have more than 10% EV market share, according to the agency. Automotive Innovation Alliance, Trade associations and lobbying groups representing most major automakers operating in the United States

Officials say many automakers will push to delay CARB authorization no matter who is in the White House. They also expect Trump to reduce or freeze corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), 2027-2031 style standards.

Several auto industry insiders said they expect Harris to reach a middle ground with automakers on such standards, in part as Biden has done.

Transformation of electric vehicles from mass market Democratic Talking Points Four years ago, for the Republican Party’s rallying cry.

Republicans, led by Trump, have largely condemned electric vehicles, saying they are being forced on consumers and will destroy the U.S. auto industry. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency and incentives to promote vehicle production and adoption.

By contrast, Democrats, including Harris, have historically supported electric vehicles and related incentives.

Harris has not publicly expressed support for electric vehicles recently amid slower-than-expected adoption and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support electric vehicle mandates, e.g. Zero Emission Vehicle Act of 2019While she was a senator, she co-sponsored a bill that would have required automakers to sell electric vehicles by 2040.

sobriety group CEO Peter Rawlinson told CNBC on Monday that no matter which presidential candidate wins the election, he believes the U.S. electric vehicle industry is still in its infancy and needs to continue to be “nurtured.”

Rawlinson, whose company has the most efficient electric vehicles on sale, also believes the IRA should not only favor the size of the battery, as it currently does, but also the efficiency of the vehicle.

“This effectively incentivizes electric vehicles with high power consumption,” he said. “It actually creates an incentive to install more batteries and make them less efficient.”

The agreement replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Negotiating during Trump’s first term It will take effect in 2020 after taking office.

Harris is one of 10 U.S. senators supporting the deal despite Trump touting it as it renegotiates. Vote against USMCA then.

GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said last week that the automaker was “closely watching” the election, including how potential changes in trade and tariffs might impact the company.

“Regardless of the outcome of the election, we have been and will continue to engage constructively in the policy process. When you look at the number of jobs created in the United States, even though some of the vehicles are manufactured abroad, many of them are produced in our factories. “This is a very complicated situation. “

Tariffs are at the heart of Trump’s auto industry plan. He said he would be willing to significantly increase tariffs to prevent Chinese automakers from importing vehicles from Mexican factories into the United States.

Chinese automakers are not currently doing this but are expected to experiment with this import method in the coming years as they Expand sales and establish localized production There are factories in the country.

Harris reportedly calls Trump’s tariffs proposal “A sales tax on the American people.” The vice president has not yet outlined any specific changes she would make to the current tariff structure if elected, including Biden’s announcement of higher tariff rates Electric vehicles imported from China From 25% to 100%.

Jefferies said a Harris win would appear to have a more positive impact on non-U.S. automakers, which together account for 48% of U.S. production and 52% of USMCA production.

Biden and Harris followed, putting the UAW and union president Fein in the spotlight more than any president in modern times, including Speech at the Democratic National Convention.

Under Fein and his top advisers hired from outside the union, the UAW’s political clout is arguably greater than at any time in a generation. But the UAW and other unions are divided over the historically Democratic-backed organization and its members.

Although the truck driver refuse to recognize Candidates amid divisions among unions, UAW leaders Not only recognizes Harris But it has been a driving force in her campaign in Michigan and other states.

United Auto Workers said last week Internal polling shows “Kamala Harris’ support for Donald Trump is growing stronger, with Harris’ lead over Trump surging over the last month.”

Meanwhile, Trump and Fein constantly criticize each other The union tried to organize as many auto plants as possible last year after winning major contracts in negotiations with legacy Detroit automakers.

blue collar worker For example, UAW members He was seen as an important supporter of Trump’s first election as president, defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.

—CNBC Michael Bloom contributed to this report.