French President Emmanuel Macron arrives before the closing ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games at the Stade de France on August 11, 2024 in Paris, France.
Tom Weller/Voight | Getty Images Sports | Getty Images
Time is running out for the so-called “Olympic political truce” announced by French President Emmanuel Macron in late July, and the country’s unstable political landscape has returned to the spotlight.
Macron has called for snap legislative elections in early July, just before Paris hosts the world’s biggest sporting event. leading to hung parliamentno party or coalition gained a majority. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won the most seats and prevented the far-right National Rally from achieving a controversial victory.
Over the past few weeks, however, the country has been largely united by sportsmanship.
The usual bickering between politicians of all stripes has ceased, and ‘caretaker’ government Still exists in name only. The next nine-month session of the National Assembly will begin on October 1.
Macron will remain president until the end of his term in 2027, although much of his domestic political capital has been depleted after Ennahda’s electoral defeat.
Prime Minister Quarrel
One of the key questions now back on the agenda is who Macron will appoint as the new prime minister – who will lead the French government, nominate ministers and push forward legislation – following the resignation of ally Gabriel Attal.
Macron has remained tight-lipped and has not commented on Lucy Custitz. .
While in theory there is freedom to appoint anyone to the role and there is no obligation to choose a candidate from the party with the most seats, unpopular choices can be overturned by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly and call for another year of elections.
Elsa Clara Masock, assistant professor of international political economy at the University of St. Gallen, said the situation was “unprecedented” and looked like it could be a “dead end” because of how divided the new parliament is.
“Under the last legislature, Macron, while not having an outright majority, was still outnumbered on the left and could rely on Conservative support without enduring censorship motions,” she told CNBC via email.
She highlighted the following issues: The New Popular Front’s 178 seats are well below the 289 needed for a majority, and its candidate Castel is likely to be rejected by other parties.
At the same time, Masoch added that Macron’s own politics and coalition government had been “widely rejected by the French” and that no party would align with the far-right National Rally. She said the party was divided even within left-wing groups, with some resisting any kind of alliance with the center.
Masoch added that one outcome could be that right-wing Republicans are willing to form a “passive majority” with the centrists, but the former seems unwilling to lose “its remaining distinctiveness” and opposition in parliament remains high.
With the 2025 budget set to be approved, there are further questions over how such a divided parliament will agree on any legislation. Even in 2022, Macron resort to using Special constitutional power to pass next year’s spending bill.
There is also likely to be fierce debate over how – or whether – action should be taken to resolve France’s problems. huge debtand whether flagship Macronist policies such as raising the national retirement age can or should be scrapped.
Masoch pointed out that under the French political system, Parliament has relatively little power. Between 2017 and 2022, 65% of the texts passed were laws proposed by the government rather than Parliament.
From a market perspective, France CAC 40 The index has fallen more than 4.5% since last month election results July 7th. analysts say A divided parliament might actually lead to more stability for stocks and bonds, as it might prevent some parties from pursuing more populist policies.
Renaud Foucart, senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University, said the parties had their sights firmly set on the 2027 presidential election – in which Macron would be unable to run – and few wanted to be responsible for public cuts. Spending to address the public deficit.
For now, he continued, uncertainty remains and Macron’s strategy appears to be to stall for as long as possible.
Foucart said that from a personal perspective, even if Macron is a “lame duck” leader domestically, he may be happy to focus more on the international arena and continue to try to influence European politics.
“His program, which included changing the labor market and deregulating the economy, was essentially over — he did what he wanted to do,” he continued.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, said in a note on Monday that Macron has had his share of failures and successes, but his victories at home, including lowering high unemployment, have It received little accolades.
He said the left focused on his lower taxes for the wealthy and his “attack on the French welfare state” while the right pointed to high immigration numbers and violent crime rates.
Macron also ultimately “failed to sell his vision of a stronger France in Europe to the majority of French voters,” Rahman said.
“Seven years ago, Macron promised to lead France to a promised land, beyond the fruitless alternation of left and right. Instead, he led France into political quicksand, with no safe government, a record budget deficit and a $3 trillion Euro 3.28 billion) of accumulated debt,” Rahman said.
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