apple Fourth-quarter earnings will be released after the market close on Thursday. It’s the end of Apple’s fiscal year and its first quarter of sales since the iPhone 16 was launched in September.
Based on LSEG’s consensus estimates, we can expect the following results:
- Earnings per share: $1.53
- income: US$94.46 billion
The most critical point is Apple’s message to investors about the December quarter, its biggest seasonal sales period of the year. This will set the tone for the current iPhone sales cycle and whether it represents an opportunity for revenue growth The launch of Apple Intelligence.
Apple doesn’t provide official guidance, but it typically provides forecast data points on calls with analysts that indicate whether the company expects sales growth and how certain of its product lines will perform, particularly iPhones, which still account for 10% of Apple’s product portfolio. Most of the line’s sales.
In the absence of official guidance and sales from Apple, investors can only get clues by parsing surveys and shipping dates on Apple’s website.
Some analysts say the current signs are “mixed.”
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in an Oct. 10 report: “To be clear, we have not heard of any iPhone production cuts, but are tracking iPhone 16 demand indicators One month out, we think iPhone demand is mixed.
Other analysts are watching to see when Apple Intelligence starts to boost sales. Apple Intelligence will be rolled out in phases over the coming months. Apple says it now offers a U.S. English version, but will add support for German, Italian, Korean, Chinese, French, Japanese and Spanish next year.
“While everyone will be focused on iPhone sales when AAPL releases its report, a series of data points suggest there is no reason to believe the upgrade cycle has begun,” DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria wrote in a note this week. This should be expected because of the Apple Intelligence feature (the only reason to upgrade)
It hasn’t been launched in a significant way yet.
US carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile also appear to be uninterested in the Apple Intelligence upgrade cycle.
“Obviously, we’re still waiting on the release of the software and whether that release will generate consumer interest,” AT&T Chief Executive John Stankey said on an earnings call last week.
Sales in Greater China were one of the weakest parts of Apple’s most recent quarterly report, falling 6% in the face of growing pressure from Chinese rivals.
“We believe Apple will still face pressure from Huawei even with the launch of new iPhones, and we don’t expect competition to ease anytime soon,” Citi analyst Malif Atik wrote in a report this week.
But research firm Counterpoint Research told CNBC in October that iPhone sales in China, especially of lower-priced devices, were strong.
A representative from Counterpoint said: “We are seeing strong sales of the iPhone 16 series in China, up 20% compared to the first three weeks of last year’s iPhone 15 series.”
Investors will also keep a close eye on Apple’s “wearables” category, which includes the Apple Watch and AirPods headphones. Both product lines have new models hitting shelves this season, including a larger-screen Apple Watch and lower-end AirPods with noise-canceling capabilities.
The new products could reverse four consecutive years of annual declines in sales of Apple’s wearable devices.
Overall, analysts polled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) expect revenue to grow about 5.6% annually to about $95 billion.
This is consistent with signals Apple sent in August. Apple also said at the time that its Services segment — the company’s catch-all, high-margin unit that includes everything from Major League Soccer subscriptions to Google search deals and extended iPhone warranties — would continue to grow about 14% in the quarter. growth momentum.
Thursday’s report may also be Finance Minister Luca Maestri’s last. apple August says Maestri will resign on Jan. 1 and will be replaced by longtime lieutenant Kevan Parekh. However, Maestri will not leave Apple and will retain oversight of some teams focused on IT, real estate and security.
watch: Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman said the launch of Apple Intelligence could be a turning point
