Even though most economic indicators hold strong indicators, fears that the turmoil in Washington may begin to weigh growth, posing a potential threat to stocks. In most cases, these data are solid in traditional code counts, such as job creation, consumer spending, and business activities. But in recent days, unexpected slides of consumer confidence have coincided with concerns about higher inflation rates, which has caused a specter of people that the economy may bring some turmoil. When President Donald Trump and his lieutenant Elon Musk attempt to cut federal bureaucracy by laying off employees, economist Torsten Slos shrouded doubts about the storm from the White House White House. Meanwhile, Trump continues to stagnate tariffs, adding to his nervous nerves. “The upcoming economic data is still huge,” said Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, a private equity firm Apollo Global Management in a note over the weekend. “But, we Begin to worry about downside risks to the economy and the market from: 1) the impact of threshold layoffs and contract cuts on unemployment claims, and 2) the continuous increase in policy uncertainty, weight on capital expenditure decisions and employment decisions. “Since Trump took office , Nationwide, unemployment applications have remained stable, but in Washington, D.C., the region has increased. In the city itself, about 6,700 new claims have been filed since Trump took office, a sharp increase in the previous months and the same period in 2024. If the Ministry of Efficiency of the Government (the advisory committee led by Musk) has been relying on the advisory committee led by Musk since then. Slok said that inauguration, reaching a consensus level of 300,000 jobs, involves contractors’ second-order effect that could result in one million layoffs nationwide. “Any increase in layoffs will increase the demands of unemployed people in the next few weeks, and such an increase in unemployment rate may have consequences for interest rates, stocks and credit,” economists wrote. Meanwhile, policy swings have increased Uncertain climate. Trump threatened to impose extensive tariffs on U.S. trading partners, while adding hostilities with Ukraine as Ukraine seeks to end the war with Russia. The global economic policy uncertainty index has soared to its historical height in 1997. While credit disparities have not widened, as they usually rise in policy measures, “the problem is that if the continuous increase in policy uncertainty starts to negatively impact capital expenditure and recruitment decisions.” Meanwhile, the general counter-trend indicators The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has reached its lowest level since late September 2024. The index measures incoming data for Wall Street estimates. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey weakened beyond expectations, with respondents dramatically increasing inflation expectations over a one-year and five-year horizon, indicating a fall. Slok said the five-year outlook rose to its highest since 1995 3.5%. Although the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNOW tracker still shows growth in the first quarter at 2.3% per year, the current trends indicate trouble. “Most importantly, the incoming data is still strong,” he wrote. “But the recent downside risks for the economy and markets are growing.”
Apollo economist Sloch believes that downside risks to the economy and market are increasing | Real Time Headlines
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