The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 4% as China’s central bank unveiled its most aggressive stimulus measures since the outbreak. Not surprisingly, the news also sent shockwaves through China’s most liquid ETFs today. The iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) is trading even higher than where it has been so far on Tuesday. (It is priced in U.S. dollars; therefore, it is subject to currency fluctuations). When big news causes big moves in any stock or ETF, the question is always, is it too late to buy? First, every time major news breaks before regular trading hours, it results in a short opening. Of course, that’s what happened with FXI today. The ETF traded sharply higher during the pre-market session, opening 6% higher than the previous day’s close. This took the ETF to its May 2024 highs. Previous highs often act as resistance levels. In other words, from a short-term perspective, FXI up 6% might be a buy as it tests the former supply area the ETF faded out of, but that’s not too attractive. That’s why we need to look beyond the past few months to truly understand its trends. This weekly chart shows a different, more encouraging picture of technology. FXI has spent much of 2024 trying to recover from a three-year downtrend. However, there is a silver lining: FXI has seen higher lows over the past few months than its early January lows. This is a necessary and critical step in ultimately forming a bullish pattern. The next step is to complete the bullish pattern. Tuesday’s action makes it possible for FXI to do just that now. After a breakout of the $30 area, the target will be the $38 area. By then, the ETF will hit its highest level since early 2022. Looking at the weekly chart, two key features of a longer-term momentum shift are: 1. The key moving averages are starting to slope higher and 2. The 14-week RSI indicator remains in the upper half of its range. It’s clear how strong the trend was in 2020 when that happened; it’s also clear how weak the trend was from 2021 to the end of 2022 when that didn’t happen. Also note that the 14-week RSI has remained in the upper half of that range for almost all of 2024. Finally, FXI has had several strong multi-month and multi-year runs since 2016. FXI broke above its recent downtrend line a few months ago, but the initial follow-through did not garner enough demand to sustain positive momentum. If the ETF can break above $30 soon, the current rise could accelerate like past long-term gains. If this happens, traders will have no choice but to take notice. Disclosure: (None) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are theirs alone and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously published by them on television, radio, the Internet or spread on other media. The above is subject to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not apply to your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Click here to view the complete disclaimer.
A popular China ETF surged on Tuesday. According to the chart, now is not the time to intervene yet | Real Time Headlines
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