On June 7, 2024, a cargo ship was sailing to a foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao Port, Qingdao Port, China.
Cost Photo | Noor Photo | Getty Images
Data showed that China’s exports grew at the fastest pace in 19 months in October, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations. The country’s customs agency on Thursday.
Exports rose 12.7% year-on-year in October to $309.06 billion, London Stock Exchange data showed, the highest growth since March 2023, when they grew 14.8%. This compares with growth of 2.4% in September and 8.7% in August.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect exports to rise 5.2% year-on-year in October.
However, imports fell by 2.3% in October, exceeding expectations, Customs data shows. This compares to modest growth of 0.3% and 0.5% in September and August respectively. Analysts had previously forecast exports to fall 1.5% in October, according to a Reuters survey.
Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China, said: “The reason for the better-than-expected export data is that exports in October were driven by improved weather conditions, continued price discounts to capture market share, and the traditional peak season before Christmas. Goods delayed.
The world’s second-largest economy has been grappling with weak domestic consumption and a lingering housing crisis, with exports a rare bright spot.
China’s growing reliance on exports comes at a time of rising trade tensions with the United States and the European Union, with China imposing steep tariffs on electric vehicles and other goods (car exports still rose 11% year-on-year last month).
According to CNBC calculations of official data, China’s exports to the United States increased by 8.1% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year.
China’s exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 12.7% and 15.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. Imports from these two regions fell by more than 6%.
China’s exports to BRICS partner Russia increased by nearly 27% compared with the same period last year, while imports fell by 2.8%.
Export growth early next year is expected to continue “pretty good year-on-year” as companies rush to ship ahead of a potential trade war with the United States, Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pindian Asset Management, told CNBC after Thursday’s data release ‘s “Squawk Box” show.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has raised fears of higher tariffs, Especially exporting to China.
“By 2025, rising protectionism in the United States and Europe will curb China’s export growth. Therefore, it is important for fiscal stimulus measures to fully boost domestic demand,” said Erica Tay, head of macro research at Maybank.
Chinese officials announced A series of stimulus measures Since late September, the measures have included cutting interest rates, reducing bank cash reserve requirements and easing home-buying rules in a bid to revive the struggling economy.
China factory activity expands in October for the first time since aprilThe official purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.1, up from 49.8 in September and analysts’ expectations of 49.9.
Chinese parliamentary standing committee meeting In progress, details are expected to be announced further fiscal stimulus When Friday is over.
