Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Erie Insurance Arena on October 14, 2024 in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Dustin Franz | AFP | Getty Images
A clear turn toward the former president Donald Trump This month, four accounts on political gambling platform Polymarket sparked scrutiny after spending a combined more than $28 million betting on Republican candidates to win the 2024 presidential election.
Polymarket confirmed some on Thursday expert have Suspect: All four accounts are controlled by one trader.
In a statement to CNBC, a spokesperson for the company said the whale was French and had “extensive trading experience and financial services background.”
The statement said the trader’s account was funded by a “well-known centralized cryptocurrency exchange,” which other media outlets identified as U.S.-based exchange Kraken.
The company insisted it found no evidence that the trader was trying to boost Trump’s odds in political betting markets.
Polymarket said that an investigation involving third-party experts “has so far found no information indicating that the user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market.”
The New York Times reported that General Market Statement Earlier Thursday morning, the company said it was working with investigative firm Nardello & Company.
The scrutiny of Polymarket’s trading comes as political betting markets take on a larger role in the 2024 election cycle.
Trump supporters tout Polymarket’s widening odds gap with Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing — though the shift differs from most national polls, which show Trump’s support is evenly matched and well within the margin of error.
MuskThe CEO of Tesla and SpaceX is also one of Trump’s biggest financial backers in winning the White House. Assert on XThe social media platform he owns believes that betting markets are “more accurate than polls because the real money is in the stakes.”
In a statement on Thursday, Polymarket stressed that “prediction markets are not polls and they measure the likelihood of an event happening, not the percentage of people who intend to take action (such as voting on Election Day).”
“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation surrounding Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” the company said.
The accounts’ combined positions in presidential election bets were worth about $28.6 million as of Thursday morning, according to Polymarket data.
The four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – were among the top five holders of Polymarket’s bets on who would win the White House race on the pro-Trump side.
The trader’s account also bet more than $7 million that Trump would win the popular vote Harris.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use the methods used by traditional political polls and therefore cannot replace political polls.
A Polymarket spokesman said it believed “this individual took a directional stance based on his or her personal views on the election.”
But the person “has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”
Following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, Polymarket is currently banned from US traders.
But another betting platform, Karshireleases new presidential election contract after a favorable ruling federal appeals court in washington d.c. Interactive Brokers A range of political betting contracts have also been launched.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is Challenging Kalshi The right to host these bets.
