surprisingly positive employment report Friday boosted optimism about economic growth american economyLess than a month to go until the end of an extremely close presidential race between vice presidents Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump,at the same time Voters say economy is top priority.
non-farm employment data There were 254,000 new jobs in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%. The numbers beat expectations, with Dow Jones consensus forecasting 150,000 new jobs this month.
“This is a very good report across all indicators,” said Aaron Sojourner, senior fellow at the WE Upjohn Employment Institute. “Wage growth is strong. The purchasing power of working families is increasing.”
The good news comes in the final stages of a tight campaign in which the economy has been a major focus.
As Harris and Trump tour swing states, they paint a picture of a showdown in the U.S. labor market.
On October 3, Trump said at a rally in Michigan: “This terrible nightmare for American workers will end the day I am sworn in.”
In stark contrast, Harris said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” that aired Monday that “we have an economy that is booming right now across all macroeconomic measures.” Harris specifically noted that “all of the U.S. Unemployment rates for all ethnic groups are at historic lows.”
On October 3, 2024, former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke at a campaign rally held at the Ryder Health and Sports Center at Saginaw Valley State University in Saginaw, Michigan.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
The jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with indicators pointing to what could be the best economic recovery in decades.
“I’ve been hesitant to say this because it might sound exaggerated,” Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi wrote in an X post in September. “This has been my experience for over 35 years. one of the best-performing economies in an economist’s career.”
September, Fed With inflation approaching the 2% target, the U.S. cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, marking an important milestone in the U.S. economy’s post-pandemic recovery.
this consumer price index It will peak at 9.1% in 2022, the highest level in about 40 years. Since then, the CPI has cooled significantly, falling to 2.5% in August.
As consumer prices gradually decline and productivity heats up, real gross domestic product The annualized growth rate in the second quarter was 3.0%. That could give Biden the highest average productivity growth rate since taking office. clinton administration.
“This is the kind of economic expansion that economists dare not hope to see,” said Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. “But it’s happening, and it’s amazing.”
The stock market has also hit new highs on an almost regular basis over the past few months. After jobs report blowout, Dow Jones Industrial Average Last week closed at new price all time high 42,352.75. this S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index It also ended the day’s rally.
As a result, recession hawks stopped stoking fear. Some companies are raising profit guidance.
On September 26, chip manufacturers Micron Technology Says it expects to bring in $8.7 billion in revenue first quarter revenuehigher than analysts’ expectations of $8.3 billion. and cloud computing companies Oracle Hiking on your own Income guidanceRevenue is expected to reach $66 billion in fiscal 2026, $1.5 billion more than the previous forecast.
Wolfers’ analysis shows the so-called “misery index,” which combines inflation and unemployment, is at nearly its lowest level for any presidential cycle in the past 50 years.
A slew of powerful data undermines Trump’s message to voters that the Biden-Harris administration has destroyed the economy” said Teddy Goff, digital director for Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign.
“Everyone can see with two eyes that the economy is booming,” Gove said.
The latest survey released by the University of Michigan on September 27 showed that consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in September, reaching the highest level since May.
CNBC reached out to the Trump campaign for this story, but national press secretary Caroline Leavitt ignored questions about the positive economic news.
“Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are broke,” Levitt wrote in a statement. “But President Trump has a plan to make America the world’s manufacturing superpower and protect American jobs here at home.” Chance.”
But Stony Brook University professor Stephanie Kelton said it’s hard to imagine many voters seeking better headlines.
“When you turn on the radio or pick up a newspaper, you’re more likely to see positive news about the state of the economy,” Kelton said. “There’s been a shift in the atmosphere.”
