While gold and silver rallied sharply in August and September, a leading copper miner struggled to find support. But improving price action this week suggests Freeport McMoRan Corp. (FCX) could be poised for further gains in the fourth quarter. Before we get to this week’s breakthrough, we first need to understand how summer’s classic ingredient patterns are set. FCX experienced an almost perfectly constructed head and shoulders top earlier this year, reaching a major high around $55 in May, followed by two lower highs in April and July. The key to the Head and Shoulders pattern is to watch for the breakdown of the “neckline” formed by the swing lows between these three price peaks. When Freeport finally broke below its neckline around $47 in mid-July, the height of the pattern meant that the minimum downside target was around $40. Sure enough, this level was reached in early August, and FCX bounced off this support twice before this month’s rally. Looking at the momentum signature, we can see that FCX often exhibits higher RSI levels at major lows. When the stock tested support in August and September 2024 and October and November 2023, those tests were characterized by upward sloping momentum readings. We could see the opposite happening at the May 2024 peak, as prices moved higher on weakening momentum readings, indicating a lack of upward pressure on the stock as it made new highs. So, with bearish momentum readings at the May peak and then bullish momentum readings at the August and September lows, FCX is primed for an upside breakout. Zooming out a bit, we can see the larger structure over the past two years, showing how the stock has been in fundamental mode through much of 2023 and into 2024. Uptrend: Price exits this basic pattern. The recent pullback to the August and September lows represents a retest of this basic pattern, and this week’s rally suggests a retest of the July top is likely. The stock gapped higher on Tuesday, breaking above short-term resistance near $46 and the trend line surrounding the May and July highs. As long as FCX remains above $46, it means it is holding on to previous resistance, which also means it remains above the 200-day moving average. The stock did appear overbought this week, with the RSI just above the 70 level on the recent breakout. This allocation suggests investors could focus on a pullback to higher lows, which could provide a more ideal entry point into investing in this improving copper miner. -David Keller, CMT marketmisbehavior.com Disclosure: (None) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are theirs alone and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, its parent or affiliates, and may have been endorsed by CNBC Previously broadcast they appeared on television, radio, online or other media. The above is subject to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not apply to your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Click here to view the complete disclaimer.
Key chart breakout for this materials stock suggests more upside ahead | Real Time Headlines
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