On September 10, 2024, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a presidential debate with US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Double-digit approval gains, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early advantage representing “change” catapult the vice president to vice president Kamala Harris Advancing and reshuffling the 2024 presidential campaign, According to a new national poll from NBC News.
With just over six weeks until Election Day, polls show Harris leading the former president by 5 percentage points Donald Trump Among registered voters, the ratio is 49% to 44%. While the result was within the margin of error, it was a marked shift from polls in July, when Trump led by 2 points before President Joe Biden dropped out.
But the transformation of the presidential race goes far beyond horse racing. First, Harris’ favorability has jumped 16 points since July, the largest increase among a politician in NBC News polls since then-President George W. Bush’s stature soars after 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Harris also has advantages over Trump in the following areas: Be seen as competent and effective, and Possess the physical and mental health necessary to serve as president — a reversal of Trump’s lead on these qualities Biden.
In a race between the current vice president and the former president, with an overwhelming majority of voters believing the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris weighs in on which candidate can better represent change and who can lead the country forward aspect prevails in the right direction.
“In July, a strong wind blew directly at President Biden, obscuring a clear path to victory,” said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster that conducted the survey. “Today, The wind is blowing in Kamala Harris’ favor.
Still, Trump still holds important advantages on the economy and inflation, although those leads are smaller than they were when Biden was still in the race. Two-thirds of voters said their household income lags behind the cost of living, which voters ranked as their top concern in the election.
What’s more, polls show that some of Trump’s erosion is coming from Republicans who are not die-hard supporters of the former president but who may return to him, as they did in 2016 and 2020 That way.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” McInturff said. “They might appear soft on Trump, and then eventually they’ll come back and vote in line with Republican versus Democratic preferences for Congress.”
comprehensive, Both pollsters believe the 2024 presidential race will look a lot like four years ago, with Democratic candidates more popular than Republican candidates, voters still deeply polarized and the final outcome unclear.
“All of these moves by Harris essentially put the race back to where it was at the end of the 2020 campaign: a very close election,” Horvitt said.
The new NBC News poll, conducted from September 13 to 17, follows two significant months in U.S. politics, including Biden dropping out of the 2024 race on July 21, two party conventions, two The vice presidential election, an assassination attempt. Only) debate between Trump and Harris.
In the first NBC News poll since these events, Harris had the support of 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head test with Harris Trump received an approval rating of 44%. Another 7% either chose another candidate, said they were unsure or said they would not vote.
In an expanded vote of third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2% and Jill Stein at 2%. Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to choose from major third-party candidates who would actually appear on their state’s ballot.
Two types of test matches represent That’s a change from July polls, when Trump narrowly led Biden by 2 points in the in-person test and 3 points in the expanded test. The results for September are It’s the Democrats’ best performance in the polls since the summer of 2023.
In the current head-to-head matchups, Harris has advantages among black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), female voters (58%-37%), and white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).
All of these advantages for Harris are larger than those enjoyed by Biden in the race, except among independents, where Harris’ 8-point advantage is nearly identical to Biden’s advantage in July.
Meanwhile, Trump leads among male voters (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without a college degree (61%-33%).
71% of voters said they had made up their mind, while 11% said they might change their vote – a change from April, when 26% said they could still change their mind.
Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump leads on key issues like border and inflation
The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on 13 different questions and presidential qualities.
Harris’ best scores are on protecting immigrant rights (she leads Trump by 28 points), abortion (+21 points), having the physical and mental health needed to be president (+20 points), having the right temperament to be president, etc. aspect.
In comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are in border security (+21), the economy (+9) and cost of living (+8).
However, Trump’s current advantages are lower than when Biden was still campaigning. When NBC News asked voters about Trump and Biden in JanuaryTrump leads the president by 35 points on border security and immigration issues and 22 points on economic issues.
In April, voters also rated Trump ahead of Biden by 22 percentage points on addressing inflation and the cost of living.
Harris’s popularity surges
Beyond these issues and qualities, what’s striking in the polls is Harris’ growing popularity since topping the Democratic ticket.
In July, 32% of registered voters had a favorable view of Harris, while 50% had an unfavorable view of her (a net rating of -18) — nearly identical to Biden’s rating.
But in this new poll, Harris now has an approval rating of 48%, an approval rating of 45% (+3).
In the 35-year history of NBC News polling, no major party presidential candidate has seen such a jump in popularity in an election.
The only increase larger than Harris’s in previous NBC News polls was George W. Bush’s post-9/11 leap (when his positivity rate increased by nearly 30 percentage points); the first After the Gulf War, then-President George H.W. Bush’s approval ratings surged (by 24 points); independent candidate Ross Perot dropped out of the presidential race in 1992 When he re-entered the presidential race in 2011, his approval rating jumped by 23 percentage points.
By comparison, Trump’s net approval rating in the new poll is essentially the same as in July – 40% positive and 53% negative (-13).
Harris’ warning
Although Harris’ situation has improved, the poll still raises red flags for Democrats. On the one hand, inflation and the cost of living remain top issues among voters. Sixty-six percent of voters said their household’s income lags behind the cost of living.
Additionally, while Harris leads Trump on “change,” another question shows the potential fragility tied to a Biden presidency: 40% of voters said they were more concerned that Harris would continue to adopt the same policies as Biden. practice.
By comparison, 39% are more concerned that Trump will continue the practices of his first term as president; 18% say neither issue is a problem.
Meanwhile, 65% of voters said the country is on the wrong track, while only 28% said it was heading in the right direction. While the share of misguided votes is smaller than during much of the Biden-Harris administration, the dire outlook is very similar to how voters viewed it in 2016 and 2020 when they decided to switch parties in the White House.
Although the share of Democrats expressing high interest in the election (scoring a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale) has increased since July, younger voters are still less interested than in recent presidential elections. Low.
Other poll results
In the recent debate between Harris and Trump, 29% said the Sept. 10 showdown made them more likely to support Harris, while 12% said it made them more likely to support Trump; 57% People say it makes no difference.
In the fight for control of Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in power. (That’s essentially unchanged from July, when Democrats were at 47% and Republicans at 46%.)
continue 2025 plan — a conservative policy blueprint with ties to former Trump administration officials that Democrats have highlighted in the campaign — was viewed negatively by a whopping 57% of voters, while just 4% viewed it positively.
NBC News’ national poll of 1,000 registered voters, 870 of whom were contacted by cell phone, was conducted Sept. 13-17 and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
