Next week could be key in determining whether stocks at all-time highs can maintain their momentum, at least for a while. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 42,000 points for the first time this week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point, while the S&P 500 also surpassed the 5,700-point milestone. But the next few sessions may determine whether the sharp post-Fed rally is sustainable, especially as investors prepare for October – a historically weak period for stocks as the U.S. presidential election approaches , the stock market may be more volatile than usual. “There’s a lot that’s up in the air over the next few days or days,” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. .SPX 5D Mountain S&P 500 As of Friday afternoon, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were trading at 30 Only stocks rose more than 1% this week. ‘Waiting for confirmation’ Now that the S&P 500 has broken through resistance at 5,670, Fairlead Strategies’ Stockton said she will carefully monitor the level in the coming days to see if it can continue to break through – although some signs of fatigue are emerging appear. Stockton said the breakthrough “pending to be confirmed.” “Confirmation is important to us because there is generally nothing worse than an unconfirmed or false breakout.” Confirmation would be a “bullish short-term development” for the S&P 500, she said, signaling a broader The index may rise to 5,935 points in the next three to eight weeks. This is an increase of approximately 4% from current levels. The technician expects a seasonal correction in October and expects a retracement to be minimized next month, while a decline could mean a deeper retracement. “If we do see a breakout confirmed, that could minimize the correction phase that we would expect,” Stockton said. “That doesn’t mean we won’t see a pullback, but I think a pullback after a breakout to The 5,000 range is less likely.” Overall, Stockton expects the S&P 500’s long-term setup to be “a little overdone.” She expects stocks to be in a range-trading environment over the next nine months. The broader market index last hovered around 5,700 points. Economic data is weak, inflation suppressed? It looks like stocks will have plenty of time to test their gains in the week ahead, at least based on the calendar, as a slew of economic reports are expected to show weaker numbers than before. Consumer confidence is expected to weaken to 102.9 in September from 103.3, according to FactSet. Durable goods orders, a measure of new orders for manufactured goods, are expected to fall 2.9% in August, after rising 9.8% a month ago. “Most economic reports should show more weakness than strength,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “I think that might lead some people to say, ‘Gee, maybe that’s why we’re cutting interest rates because things look like It’s a little soft.'” Investors can continue to look forward to good news on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index for August released on Friday is expected to show that price pressures continue to fall from their highs. For investors, it could be confirmation that the Fed is right to shift its focus toward employment — Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that the strong downward trend was a reflection of his support for a half-way rate cut at the last meeting. percentage points. It is worth noting that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday that central bank economists expect the PCE to grow by 2.2%. Last month it was 2.5%. “I think PCE will be the icing on the cake,” Stovall said. One week ahead calendar all times are Eastern Time. Monday, September 23, 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August) 9:45 a.m. PMI preliminary composite index (September) 9:45 a.m. Markit PMI preliminary manufacturing index (September) 9 a.m. :45 Markit PMI Preliminary Services Sector (September) Tuesday, September 24, 9 a.m. FHFA House Price Index (July) 9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (July) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence Index (September) 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (September) Earnings: AutoZone Wednesday, Sept. 25 10 a.m. New Home Sales (Aug.) Earnings: Micron Technology Thursday, Sept. 26 8:30 a.m. Continuing jobless claims (9/14) 8:30 AM Durable orders excluding transportation (August) 8:30 AM GDP (Q2) 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims (9/21) AM 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (August) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Profits: Costco Wholesale, CarMax Friday, Sept. 27 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (August) ) 8:30 AM Core PCE Deflator (August) 8:30 AM Personal Consumption Expenditures (August) 8:30 AM Personal Income (August) 8:30 AM Preliminary Wholesale Inventories (August) 10 AM Secret Siegen Sentiment Final Data (September)
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