Taiwan President Lai Ching-te applauds during an inspection of a military camp in Taoyuan, Taiwan, on May 23, 2024.
Wang An | Reuters
Security and policy analysts say Taiwan is facing growing pressure to bolster its defense capabilities and deterrence against China in the face of uncertainty about the U.S. election scheduled for November.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Jialong, told reporters last month The self-governing island must defend itself and is likely to continue spending and modernizing its military in the face of threats from China, which considers the island its own.
The minister’s comments come in response to suggestions from presidential candidate Donald Trump Taipei should pay Washington for military protection. Trump said the country “gave us nothing” and took “100 percent of our chip business.”
Experts said Trump’s comments underscored the unpredictability Taiwan faces, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and backed Vice President Kamala Harris, who has relatively little foreign policy experience.
The ‘unpredictable’ Trump
Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University, said that while Biden has “a more consistent policy toward Taiwan,” Trump has proven to be “erratic and unpredictable” since the start of his first term. .
This was largely due to the strategic differences between the two leaders. Nagy added that while Biden has repeatedly said the United States will defend Taiwan, Trump has chosen “strategic ambiguity.”
Days after taking office, Trump became the first U.S. president to take office in decades. Direct communication with Taiwanof President.
Soon after, he suggested that the United States might change its long-held position Taiwan is part of “One China”. However, he reportedly abandoned its original position Phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2016.
Regardless, Trump’s tough stance on China has led many Taiwanese to believe he will strongly support Taiwan, said Weng Lu-zhong, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University.
Similar to 2016, candidates are campaigning Tough policy against China And has proposed a significant intensification of the trade war against the country.
Mohammad Faizal, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that the tougher containment stance against China adopted by Trump 2.0 will be welcomed by Taiwan’s ruling party and other Indo-Pacific partners.
However, he added that they were also concerned that Trump’s “short-sighted and transactional approach” to foreign and defense relations – exemplified by his remarks about Taiwan paying U.S. defense costs – could lead them back to his geopolitical Darts on.
At the same time, although experts interviewed by CNBC agreed that a second Trump administration is likely to be filled with China hawks Although they view the defense of Taiwan as a top priority, the extent to which they can control policy remains unclear.
Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and senior lecturer in international affairs, said: “I think anyone who says they’re sure where (the government) is going to go is crazy… I think the level of unpredictability will be bigger than ever.
Harris’s approach to statecraft?
On the other side of the ticket is Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, after Biden bowed to pressure to drop out of the race over concerns about his age.
Analysts say she is expected to be somewhat aligned with Biden’s agenda and foreign policy.
“I think (Harris) is a continuation of broader foreign policy trends over the past few decades,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC.global communication“Last month.
Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, said it’s unclear how Harris sees herself different from Biden and that Beijing will be watching her closely if she is to win. first 100 days.
As Vice President, Harris expressed support for Taiwan and Met with the island’s new leadersLai Qingde, 2022.
“While I expect there will be some continuity in her China policy (with Biden), it is important to recognize the powerful influence individuals have on policy formulation, formulation and execution,” McNeil said.
“Vice President Harris is not Joe Biden, and she will govern differently,” he added.
Taiwan’s defense measures
With both candidates bringing a level of uncertainty to Taiwan, policy experts say the island nation is under greater pressure to step up efforts to build its own deterrent.
Ava Shen, who covers foreign policy and domestic politics for Taiwan and China at the Eurasia Group, said the efforts have built momentum since Lai’s election in January, and the U.S. election will only add more urgency.
Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party member Lai Ching-te is favored by Beijing as a separatist and continues his predecessor’s efforts to build ties with Washington amid heightened tensions military and political pressure by China.
His inaugural address emphasized Ally with democracies and strengthen defense. Around the same time, a Extend compulsory military service by one year An initiative targeting men announced by former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Tsai Ing-wen has taken effect.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has been increasing total defense spending in its annual budget, reaching 2.6% of GDP this year, and plans to increase it again in 2025, according to local reports.
Strengthen defense needs secure more weapons As of February this year, the country was waiting on some backlogged orders Valued at US$19 billion U.S. weapons purchased, according to the Cato Institute.
A bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers met with Jimmy Lai in May. Pledges weapons and $2 billion support package Because the Taiwanese army is already on the way.
According to one report, China’s latest official defense budget is $224 billion, about 12 times that of Taiwan. Report of the Council on Foreign Relations.
“In general, the Taiwanese government and society feel a certain degree of unease or anxiety,” said Huang Guibo, a professor of diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and secretary-general of the Taiwan Council on Foreign Relations.
He added that if Trump wins, Taiwan is expected to continue expanding its defense budget to at least 3% of GDP, a level comparable to that of former presidential advisers It is reported Consider asking NATO members.
Lu Zhong, a professor at Sam Houston State University, said that although the U.S. election will definitely bring greater deterrence pressure to Taiwan, it is beneficial to Taiwan because Taiwan must deal with severe realities.
“As far as self-defense plans are concerned, Taiwan will continue its current approach, but it will not be easy to fill the gap in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
