Investors can take advantage of the breakthrough entering the new moon, but there are no shortage of future obstacles, including next week’s February job report and an imminent tariff deadline. Stocks were different at the end of February than they started. Late Friday, down nearly 3% in the month, down 3% this week after tariff threats and a 2.4% decline in large Megacap Tech stocks, giving people confidence in a market that has been priced perfectly. Tariffs will also become massive in the coming week, with Donald Trump vowing this week that a 25% tax in Mexico and Canada will take effect on Tuesday, March 4, while China’s levy will be levied 10%. Recent economic data have been softer, further scaring investors. As investors continue to move from income seasons to the Fed meetings on the 18th and 19th, macroeconomic situations will grow more and more important in March. Hopefully the center’s price data is enough to support central banks’ cuts and a stable economy to avoid concerns about growth and profits. “The recent weeks show that the market is in a hurry,” said John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “The data types support valuations, but there may not be enough valuations in some of the uncertainties brought by the new administration.” Belton said. “In this environment, the market will indeed be able to analyze any data better than usual.” The SPX 5D Mountain S&P 500 suffered a weekly loss in the last week of last Friday, with the S&P 500 reaching its worst weekly performance in 2025. The Dow Jones industrial average fell by 0.4% late Friday, with the Nasdaq Comprehensive Slid down 5.2% over the week. The decline is sharper every month. In February, 30-share Dow shares were nearly 3%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq stock lost about 5.7%. February’s work report is expected to show next week’s February work report will show that the labor market is relaxing, creating fewer jobs and businesses limiting new employees. Economists expect the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs last month, up from 143,000 jobs in January with an unemployment rate of 4.0%. Thomas Simons, chief economist at Jefferies, expects that slightly cooler reports online will not have much impact on stock holdings because it does not significantly change the market prices because of interest rates. Market pricing could be two to two-thirds of the pricing that began in June later this year, according to CME Group data for interest rate futures trading. Simmons noted that the standard for drastic changes in the rate of reduction is quite high. He said that given Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that central banks are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, policymakers will need several months of negative wages, and an unemployment rate of more than 4.5%, perhaps close to 5%, to make the Fed start to become more accommodating. Still, Simmons said he is optimistic that the long term is still lowering his expectations for growth in the first half of 2025. He said further economic weakness would support the federal government’s cuts three times this year, rather than the central bank’s forecast for December. In particular, economists are waiting to cut the impact on the federal workforce ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which he hopes may appear in a March job report in April. “In the next six months, I think we may eventually see more downside risk performance than upside,” Simmons said. “In March, investors are alert to weaknesses in the coming months. While many are still confident that major stock averages can make a lot of progress this year, they have less confidence in the near future given the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policy. From the seasonal speech, this month presents its own challenges. March is the fifth month of the S&P 500, which typically averages 1.1%, up 0.8% after the election, according to the yearbook of stock traders. However, in recent years, some “wild volatility” of this month usually takes preconditions for the momentum to begin later this month. Elsewhere, economists next week will monitor ISM manufacturing figures in February and trade balances in January, which can also raise some early signs that efforts to relocate to the U.S. from abroad are taking effect. On the earnings side, Broadcom will give investors an idea of the state of AI games on Thursday. Always the calendar of the previous week. Monday, March 3 9:45 am S & P PMI Manufacturing final (February) 10 am Construction Spending (January) 10 am ISM Manufacturing (February) Tuesday, March 4 2:20 pm New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks at Bloomberg Invest in New York Earnings: Ross Stores , CrowdStrike Holdings , Best Buy , AutoZone Tariffs on Canada, Mexico set to go into effect and those on China are raised 9 pm Presidential address to joint session of Congress is traditionally held Wednesday, March 5 8:15 am ADP Employment Survey (February) 9:45 am PMI Composite final (February) 9:45 am S & P PMI Services final (February) 10 am Durable Orders final (January) 10 am Factory Orders (January) 10 am ISM Services PMI (February) 2 pm Federal Reserve Beige Book 6:15 pm New York Federal Reserve Bank SOMA Manager Roberto Perli gives keynote remarks on Monetary Policy Implementation in New York Earnings: Campbell’s Company Thursday, March 6 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (02/22) 8:30 am Initial Claims (03/01) 8:30 am Unit Labor Costs final (Q4) 8:30 am Productivity final (Q4) 8:30 am Trade Balance (January) 10 am Wholesale Inventories final (January) Earnings: Broadcom , Hewlett Packard Enterprise , Costco Wholesale , Fastenal , Kroger Friday, March 7 8:30 am February Jobs REport 10:45 am New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams dicusses at US Monetary Policy Forum Report “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-Covid”, NY 3 pm Consumer Credit
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