Hamas Politburo Chairman Ismail Haniyeh gave an exclusive interview to Anadolu Agency on April 20, 2024 in Istanbul, Turkey.
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Tensions in the Middle East After a dramatic escalation in Hamas’ top leadership Ismail Haniyeh killed in attack in Iranian capital Tehran early Wednesday.
iranian officials Blame Israel An Israeli government spokesman declined to comment on Haniyeh’s death on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
“Israel’s attitude is very clear – Haniyeh is a zombie,” wrote Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, in a post on X after the news. “After leaving Doha, it was game time . Hours after Fouad Shukr was killed in Beirut, the Middle East is now absolutely on a knife edge.”
Just a day earlier, Israeli forces announced they had killed Hezbollah’s second-ranking figure, Fouad Shukr. In an attack on a densely populated area of Beirut, for revenge Last week’s attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights Resulting in the deaths of several children. Israel has accused the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah of responsibility for the attack, a charge it has so far denied.
Haniyeh, a former Hamas politburo chief, is seen as a relatively moderate figure within the group – importantly, he led ceasefire negotiations with Israel and is the face of the group’s regional diplomacy efforts.
Israel’s alleged killing of Haniyeh marks a blow to Hamas and essentially destroys any short-term chance of a ceasefire between the Palestinian militant group and Israel in the brutal war in Gaza, now entering its tenth month.
Israel and Iran have demonstrated the ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of new attacks is growing.
Torbjorn Saltvetter
Verisk Maplecroft Chief MENA Analyst
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar wrote on X: “While negotiations continue, political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza lead us to ask, how can mediation be successful when one side assassinates negotiators from the other side? Peace requires serious partners and a rejection of disregard for human life global stance.
The government in Qatar has long hosted Hamas’s political leadership. Haniyeh was appointed leader of Hamas’s political wing in 2017 before going into exile in Qatar in 2019. Harder Hamas adherents. Sinwar is believed to be the mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel, which killed about 1,200 people and took 253 hostages, 116 of whom have been released.
Israel’s military response to the attack has killed more than 39,000 people in Gaza, health authorities in the blockaded enclave said. More than half of the buildings were destroyed, According to the United Nations
While ceasefire talks have been going on for months without success, the more extreme Sinwar – based inside Gaza and said to have the final say on major Hamas decisions – has often stalled or cut off communications during negotiations.
Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at the consultancy Control Risks, told CNBC that Haniyeh is a “key interlocutor in Gaza ceasefire negotiations.”
“His killing will derail negotiations and mean that Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, whose position is far less compromising, will face less moderate opposition within the organization,” Tricoud said. Checks and balances. “A ceasefire may still be months away. “
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued to stress that the ceasefire was an “enduring imperative” and denied that the US knew anything about the Israeli attack on Haniyeh, speaking at a forum in Singapore.
In 2018, the U.S. State Department designated Haniyeh a terroristcalling him a “supporter of armed struggle, including against civilians,” and claiming that Hamas’ actions resulted in “an estimated 17 Americans killed in terrorist attacks.”
Will Iran retaliate?
Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all vowed to retaliate; but their choice of actions against Israel could lead to further escalation or plunge the region into a larger war.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told the Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday that Israel “does not want war but is preparing for all possibilities”. Meanwhile, Iran’s leader said the alleged Israeli attack was grounds for “severe punishment” and that the country must “pay a heavy price”.
An all-out war between Israel and Iran—and Iranian proxies like Hezbollah—would be devastating for all parties involved. But not responding at all may not be an option for Iran’s leaders, who will face pressure to show force.
A banner hanging on the facade of a building shows missiles and drones flying over a torn Israeli flag, with the words “The next slap will be harder” written in Farsi and in Hebrew “Your next mistake will be the end of your false state” was held on April 14, 2024 at Palestine Square in Tehran.
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Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Haniyeh’s death in Tehran “puts Iran’s leadership under intense pressure from the Revolutionary Guards to resume operations on Iranian soil.” To retaliate after being attacked”.
“Israel and Iran have demonstrated the ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of new attacks is increasing.”
Still, many regional analysts expect Iran’s response to be conservative, as the Islamic Republic has so far shown no interest in going to war with Israel to help Hamas. tit for tat Missile attack exchange between Iran and Israel Seen in April Basically a measured and telegraphed attack To avoid heavy losses or casualties.
He said Control Risks’ Tricaud expected any retaliation “will be very targeted – possibly using Iranian-backed proxy groups”. “It is unclear whether Tehran’s intention to avoid a full-scale regional conflict with Israel has changed as a result of Haniyeh’s killing.”
He added that while the attack did constitute a major violation of the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty, “Tehran has repeatedly shown that it does not want to be drawn into direct conflict with Israel over the Gaza war.”
