(From R) Election campaign posters for the Liberal Democrats (FDP), Left (Die Linke), Social Democrats (SPD), Greens (Die Gruenen) and Christian Democrats (CDU). January 20, 2025 in Berlin.
John MacDougall | AFP | Getty Images
Berlin – Century party struggles in the German general election on Sunday, former Prime Minister Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) records its worst result As many voters moved to the extreme and left.
Speaking in Berlin shortly after the poll was released on Sunday night, Scholz says it’s a “painful” failure.
According to preliminary, his SPD party received only 16.4% of the votes numberwhile the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its affiliates, the Christian Social Union (CSU) received the largest voting share, accounting for 28.5%. Although that means the Conservative coalition won the election, it is still their second record ever, down from 30% of the close watch.
However, the parties that traditionally constitute the margins of politics have recorded huge gains as voters flock to extremes. As widely expected, the alternative to the far-right Fordeschland (AFD) doubled its share of votes in the last election, slightly above 20% on Sunday, making it the second largest in the German parliament strength.
Teneo Managing Director Carsten Nickel said in a note on Sunday night that such strength would “remind centrist parties to quickly resolve multiple challenges in the country or that it could face in the next election Greater election turmoil.”
The left-wing Link party benefited from unexpected support, which ignored expectations of getting 8.8% of the vote, up from 4.9% of the 2021 general election. Just a few weeks ago, it was unclear whether the party would even cross the 5% barrier needed to enter the German parliament.
“Extreme – extreme, extreme extreme – obviously reached nearly 30%, which makes the entire German political landscape even more dispersed,” ING macro head Carsten Brzeski told CNBC in Berlin on Monday.
He added that this could foreshadow the “new normal” in Germany.
Immigration debate improves
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the success of marginal parties is largely attributed to the intense immigration topic.
“The polarization debate about immigration benefits political extremes,” he told CNBC. “Most importantly, it inspires Germany where a few people want to open borders for unwanted immigrants and refugees,” Schmieding said in an emailed comment. People. These voters flock to Link, the only party that fully agrees with this aspect.”
Throughout the election, Germany fell into a fierce debate on immigration throughout the election Deported or have a foreign background to promote stricter immigration laws.
CDU-CSU head, probably Brigadier General Friedrich Merz, fell into hot water earlier this year as he pushed for a non-binding motion on immigration policy, who passed parliament with the support of the AFD Leading what he led. This marked the first time in post-war history that most people achieved with the help of the far right.
According to Ing’s Brzeski, the other two factors are demographics and geographical location.
“Die Linke and AFD are doing well on social media and doing well on social media,” he said. It has long been the key to AFD.
data Shown, the two parties are particularly popular among younger voters, and Die Linke became the most popular among young people aged 18 to 24, receiving a quarter of the vote, followed by the AFD second name. Die Linke is also the biggest party Mock election Under 18 years old.
Geographically, Burzky points out the widespread success of AFD in East Germany Safety Most direct tasks. The far-right parties have long been exploiting the region’s economic insecurity and anti-building sentiment, Experts told CNBC earlier this month.
The prospect of political extremes
Looking ahead, observers now see the risk of extreme parties continuing to strengthen their strength unless the incoming centrist government makes changes.
Schmiyan warned that Germany’s mainstream “needs to combine its behavior and address key issues,” such as immigration and the country’s economic situation, saying political extremes may continue to be popular.
If this happens, the next federal election will not guarantee that the parties will be excluded from the government, he said. Although the French are Germany’s second largest political party, all mainstream groups have so far said they will not enter the alliance with them.
Burzky also urged caution on the capabilities of the middleman government, which may be composed of CDU-CSU and SPD alliances to put more extreme parties in trouble. Historically, these parties ruled together – known as the “big alliance” – in fact strengthened the extreme parties.
“This really puts the next league in a stronger test. So if they messed up, it would be the AFD, and actually, won the next election,” Burzski said.
