U.S. President Trump at a press conference at the end of the NATO summit on July 12, 2018.
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Much of the world is waiting with bated breath as U.S. President-elect Trump returns to the White House on Monday.
The prospect of more unpredictable foreign and trade policies, particularly the threat of widespread trade tariffs of 10-20%, has raised concerns among the international community and spooked financial markets. But Trump’s deal-making approach and his “America First” policies are not met with widespread fear.
In fact, many countries are welcoming a new era labeled “Trump 2.0”.
“Long-term U.S. allies regret Trump’s return, but few others regret it,” the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank said in its publication. global opinion poll The study found that people in China and Russia were more optimistic about Trump’s return to power than long-time allies in Europe and Asia.
The poll of more than 28,000 people in 24 countries found that “many people believe Trump will not only be good for the United States, but also bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and U.S.-China relations.”
“In countries such as India, China, Turkey and Brazil, more respondents believe Trump is good for the United States, their country and world peace than think he is bad for them,” ECFR said of the survey results.
The survey showed that respondents in India, Saudi Arabia and Russia were the most optimistic about Trump returning to office because it would be good for American citizens and their own countries.
Nearly 60% of Russian respondents believe Trump’s election will be beneficial to American citizens, and 49% believe it is a good thing for Russia.
Followed closely by 46% of Chinese respondents who believe Trump’s return will be beneficial to China. Although Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China, this move may deal a blow to the Chinese economy, but it may also be counterproductive and may push up prices for American consumers.
Russian soldiers approach a U.S. M2 Bradley fighting vehicle captured in Ukraine.
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The former BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have much more positive sentiment towards Trump – and the belief that his presidency could lead to a more peaceful world – than the EU, the UK and the southern nation of South Korea , only 11% of the people surveyed believe that Trump’s election as president will be a good thing for their future.
On a slightly more optimistic note, only 15% of British respondents think Trump will be good for the UK “Special relationship”.
“When Donald Trump returns to the White House, much of the world will welcome him,” the ECFR said when releasing the report. “Anxiety is widespread in Europe, but people in many other countries are either worried about a second Trump term or not.” Be relaxed or feel positive and positive.
“U.S. allies in Europe and South Korea are particularly pessimistic about the incoming president, suggesting that ‘Western’ geopolitics will weaken further,” the report added.
Trump empowers
Geopolitical analysts say things will be different this time around when President Trump takes office, and the world needs to be prepared.
Not only does it give him confidence The scale of his 2024 election victoryIan Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, noted that he is also surrounded by loyalists who are more ideologically aligned with him after having solid support from a unified Republican Party and returning to the White House with more experience. .
Bremer told CNBC that Trump 2.0 will see the president have more power and influence than before, while the West and the Group of Seven (including the United Kingdom, Canada and Germany) will lose ground.
“This time, Trump has more power relative to other countries, both allies and adversaries of the United States, so they are more inclined to listen to him and take him seriously,” Bremer told CNBC in emailed comments.
Bremer added: “Trump also has more countries and people supporting his ‘motherland first’ policy of governing.”
“He built strong relationships with Israel and the Gulf states in his first term, but now he’s added Italy, Hungary, Argentina, El Salvador… and a lot of other countries. That’s very different from Trump who came out Now at the G20 summit, everyone is laughing behind their backs,” he noted.
“Today’s world zero is a very different environment,” Bremer added, referring to a world in which no single country or group of countries is willing and able to push the global agenda to maintain international order.
Market analysts agree that while Trump’s antipathy toward China, America’s biggest economic rival, is well-known, his long-standing ambivalence toward NATO and anger over persistent trade deficits across much of Europe have made the continent’s allies more vulnerable to Trump’s common possible attack targets.
European countries make up the majority of NATO members The EU is the largest trading partner of the United States.
“In Europe, we are concerned,” market strategist Bill Bryan (if he is not independent, can we say which company/organization he is from) said in emailed comments last week. “Yet the rest of the world has been largely unfazed by the scale of change that may be coming.”
“It’s clear that geopolitical lines are being redrawn. The foundations of the global economy are also going to be redefined,” Bryan added.
