Aerial view of a container ship leaving the Qingdao shipyard in eastern China’s Shandong province.
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China’s December trade data significantly beat expectations as exporters continued to bring forward shipments as concerns about additional tariffs grew, while China’s stimulus measures appeared to support demand in the industrial sector.
China’s export data showed that in U.S. dollar terms, exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year in December. Customs authorities showed on Mondayexceeding the 7.3% growth forecast in a Reuters survey. In comparison, it grew 6.7% in November and soared 12.7% in October.
Customs data showed that import volume increased by 1.0% year-on-year last month, reversing the contraction trend in the previous two months. Analysts had previously forecast imports to fall by 1.5% year-on-year. This is related to a The decline was even greater in November, reaching 3.9% and Growth in October was 2.3%.
Last year, China’s total exports denominated in RMB increased by 7.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated compared with the previous year. Moderate growth of 0.6% in 2023Customs officials said at a news conference on Monday.
China’s imports grew by 2.3% last year Decrease 0.3% in 2023.
Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a report that outbound transport is likely to remain resilient in the short term, supported by further gains in global market share due to the weakening of the yuan.
However, the outlook for exports this year appears less promising as “potential tariff increases could dampen momentum,” said Bruce Pang, distinguished senior fellow at the National Institute of Finance and Development.
“In the short term, import volumes are expected to rebound further, driven by strong demand for industrial commodities and accelerated fiscal spending,” Pang added.
A long-running property crisis has hit domestic demand in China, making the country more reliant on exports to fuel its growth.
Economists expect exports to Strong support for China’s economic growth last year. GDP data will be released later this week.
Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid rising trade tensions with major trading partners including the United States and the European Union, but the growth is likely to come as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House will be damaged.
Exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors Growth last year was 13.1% and 18.7% respectivelyaccording to customs officials.
imminent risk
Trump, who will take office on January 20, has raised concerns about higher tariffs on Chinese exports. he has Commitment to impose an additional 10% tariff All Chinese goods entering the United States
Chinese authorities have stepped up policy support since late September to shore up the country’s economy as economic growth slows and social tensions rise. But Teneo managing director Gabriel Wildau said in a note on Friday that “an attitude of caution and restraint remains.”
China has Lower policy ratesrelease Property purchase restrictionsinjecting liquidity into financial markets Announcement of debt swap plan Ease the financial pressure on local governments.
“While top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi Jinping appears unwilling to accept the additional stimulus needed to combat deflation,” Wildau added.
“Policymakers need to be prepared for some stimulus measures so that they can respond adequately if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he said. Uncertainty about export growth provided an opportunity for Beijing to avoid a “big bang (stimulus) move,” he said. ) measures” provides another reason.
Among a series of key economic data released this week, China will release full-year and fourth-quarter GDP data on Friday. According to a Reuters survey, annual growth in the final quarter of 2024 is expected to be 5.1%.
This year, top leadership pledged to vigorously promote Domestic consumption is priority At the same time, fiscal expenditures will be expanded to provide funds for consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade policies. Launched in July last yearthe trade-in program subsidizes consumers Replace old cars or appliances And buy new ones at discounted prices.
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