The Kospi index and the exchange rate between the South Korean won and the U.S. dollar are displayed on a screen in the trading room of Hana Bank on Monday, December 16, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea.
Sung-jun Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report comes from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
All eyes on U.S. jobs report
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for December will be released later on Friday. Economists expect this to show Create 155,000 new jobsdown from 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and CitigroupHowever, I think both numbers will be worse than consensus forecasts.
U.S. markets sluggish, European markets close higher
U.S. markets were closed Thursday to honor former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Died in late December at the age of 100. European regional Stoke 600 The index rose 0.42% after hours Start the day with a negative value. Denmark’s Moller-Maersk fell 5.8% amid a broader sell-off in shipping stocks. tentative collective bargaining agreement Trapped by American Dockers.
Fed governor thinks December rate cut should be ‘final step’
Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman said that the Federal Reserve Rate cut in December It should be the “last step in the policy readjustment phase”. This suggests that Bowman, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, May oppose further cuts this year. Other Fed officials who spoke this week were more optimistic about a rate cut.
Ubisoft explores ‘strategic and capitalist choices’
French video game publisher Ubisoft It said on Thursday it had appointed “key advisers” Review options “Getting the most value for our stakeholders.” Ubisoft founders the Guillemot family and Tencent were reportedly considering an acquisition in October Acquisition company. As Ubisoft shares trade at 10-year low, the company Facing questions about its future.
(PRO) Employment Report’s Best Points
The U.S. economy is in a delicate position between growth and inflation. Friday’s jobs report illustrates the difficulty of this balancing act. Too hot, and Treasury yields could rise; Goldman Sachs said it’s too cold, and concerns about an economic slowdown could cause stocks to fall. but S&P 500 Index Potential backlash if report released Just the right range.
bottom line
South Korea can no longer rest. Over the past month, the country has been under martial law, the current president and president-elect have been impeached, served a second term as acting president (so far), and suffered a tragic plane crash.
What impact will these events have on the Korean market?
Judging from the Kospi index: not much. The index, which tracks all common stocks listed on the Korea Exchange, is above levels on Dec. 3 when impeached President Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law.
Its resilience can be traced to South Korea’s political history and the Bank of Korea’s swift — and perhaps haphazard — actions.
Yoon and Han Deok-soo are just the latest two presidential figures to be impeached in South Korean history. Before that, Roh Moo-hyun was impeached in 2004 (although the court overturned the impeachment), while Park Geun-hye was impeached in 2016 and dismissed the following year.
Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, said: “A presidential impeachment in South Korea is not unprecedented, at least in the most recent impeachment in 2016/2017, the country’s stock market ended up doing well.” explain.
Soohyung Lee, a member of the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy committee, said the uncertainty caused by South Korea’s past two impeachments “has receded within three to six months.” told CNBC on January 2, so “political unrest may not have much impact on the country’s economy.”
The Bank of Korea’s actions also appeared to calm markets.
On the day Yoon lifted martial law, the Bank of Korea announced Emergency measures to calm markets and protect against fluctuations. Likewise, a Unexpected rate cut of 25 basis points The Bank of Korea could have softened the blow by approving at its November meeting the protocols Yoon had put in place before declaring martial law in December.
Internal factors may not be the biggest threat to South Korea’s economy and market in the coming year. this Downside risks Lee said the tariffs proposed by U.S. President-elect Trump are more worrying, especially for export-oriented countries like South Korea.
South Korea’s recent troubles show that when one arm of government fails, other institutions can still prop up a country and its economy — but dealing with other governments is much more difficult.
—CNBC’s Lim Hui Jie and Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.
