The first General Dynamics F-16 fighter jet Ukraine received flew at an unspecified location in Ukraine on Ukrainian Air Force Day, August 4, 2024. The first General Dynamics F-16 fighter jet Ukraine received was displayed at a Ukrainian Air Force Day event attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (Photo by Vitalii Nosach/Global Photos Ukraine, Getty Images)
Vitalino Sach | Global Image Ukraine | Getty Images
After being elected Donald Trump With Republicans sweeping the House and Senate, there is a real possibility that the United States could cut funding to Ukraine, raising concerns among European leaders about what that would mean for the ongoing conflict.
Trump has previously said he would End war in Ukraine within 24 hours and has been joining hard-line Republican members of Congress in publicly criticizing funding for the war-torn country. Almost blocked a major aid package in April. on Sunday, Trump said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Once he takes office, Ukraine will “likely” receive less military aid.
But experts interviewed by CNBC said there is reason to believe that Europe, Ukraine’s largest donor, could make up the shortfall if the United States withdraws or tightens funding.
Aid to Ukraine
Ukraine relies on military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain its military operations, particularly the United States and Europe.
according to Kiel Economic Institute’s Ukraine Support TrackerFinancial aid to Ukraine has been tracked from January 2022 to October 2024, and Europe has pledged 241 billion euros ($255 billion) in aid and the United States has pledged 119 billion euros. Among them, Europe has actually allocated 125 billion euros so far, and the United States has allocated 88 billion euros.
Pietro Bomprezzi, head of the Ukraine Support Tracking Program, told CNBC that both Europe and the United States have provided “significant amounts of military assistance.”
As Ukraine’s largest donor and neighbor, Europe will bear the brunt if U.S. aid runs out and is not renewed under Trump. In the latest news update published by the tracker last week, Kristof Trebesh, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker, said: “With the current funding coming to an end, all eyes are on the incoming U.S. administration. and its willingness to support Ukraine.
Can Europe fill this gap?
European leaders have met several times since the election to bolster support for Ukraine, with many countries doubling down on their commitments.
Germany, Europe’s largest donor to Ukraine, has repeatedly reiterated its support for Ukraine and pledged further military aid during a surprise visit to Kiev last week: “Ukraine can rely on Germany,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly blocked EU funding to Ukraine but struck a different tone last month, saying If the United States withdraws aid, Europe will be unable to fill the fiscal gap.
But analysts who spoke to CNBC said Europe could fill the gap and there are many ways to do it.
exist Latest update on December 5thThe Ukraine Support Tracking website said profits from using frozen Russian assets were “primarily available to European donors” and “could help them cover future losses of U.S. funds.”
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank, told CNBC that “it would be very easy for the EU to make up for U.S. financial support for Ukraine” using the new Instruments such as mutual debt, bilateral donations and aid.
Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the seizure and distribution of frozen Russian assets would be a “game changer.” Although G7 provides $50 billion in loans using Russian assets to pay interest While this is a small step in this direction, the EU can do more as it has full control over these assets.
“If the (G7) had the will to do so, it could provide the aggressor with a large sum of money and use it to defend Ukraine,” Gould-Davies said, adding that the main reason for not doing so was that certain EU member states are worried about the financial consequences.
There are other ways Europe can fill this gap. Kirkgaard pointed to the Danish model for financing Ukraine: instead of shipping Western-made weapons that are more expensive to produce, countries could directly finance Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.
Kirkgaard noted that even with the United States withdrawing key weapons, they can still be purchased: European countries could agree to a trade deal, as China did in 2018, and agree to buy American-made products, In this case it’s buying American made weapons.
Gould-Davies said how much energy Europe devotes to defending itself and Ukraine is “entirely a political choice.”
He describes it as a balance of resources versus a balance of resolve – a balance of resources that is good for Europe, but a balance of resolve that is good for Russia: Ukraine’s defense could get a lot of support if Europe had the political will to exploit its resource advantage.
What will happen if you don’t?
Max Bergman, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that while European countries may increase aid in the event of a U.S. troop withdrawal, “it’s unclear whether Ukraine will be able to survive.” over the gap between Ukraine and Ukraine”. Withdrawal of US aid and increase in European defense production. “
If Europe does not step up its aid in the face of the US withdrawal, Ukraine will lose the war: “The danger is that we will see in Kiev in 2026 what we saw in Kabul in 2021 – a military collapse, leading to Ukraine and the end of Ukrainian democracy.
