In the abandoned Rasta village, there is a cafe that offers a glimpse into the past. There are no staff here, instead there is an honor system that allows visitors to help themselves to a cup of coffee in exchange for a donation.
CNBC
Rasta, Greece – In the mountain village of Rasta in the Peloponnese region of Greece, the Saint George Cafe is deserted.
Instead, there’s an honor system – just have a drink, leave a donation and soak up the relics of a bygone era.
Vivid photos of residents on the walls belie the reality outside, where deserted squares, abandoned schools and derelict houses offer an eerie glimpse into the future of a country at risk of demographic collapse.
Rasta is just one of hundreds of depopulated or abandoned “ghost” towns and villages scattered across Greece, a telltale sign of years of declining birth rates, economic hardship and mass immigration.
Economists warn that population decline is putting major pressure on a country emerging from crisis because there are not enough young people to support the economy for generations to come.
“While Greece’s economic growth is very solid right now, going forward, it’s going to be very difficult because there are fewer and fewer people doing the work,” ING chief economist Bert Colijn told CNBC by phone. will be difficult to maintain.
Declining birth rate an ‘existential’ threat
Greece is the home of one of lowest fertility rate Europe: 1.3, half of the 1950 record and well below the 2.1 needed for population replacement.
There were just over 71,400 births in the country last year, the lowest number since records began nearly a century ago, and will fall by about 6% by 2022. people, and the proportion of the population over 65 years old is almost twice that of the 0 to 14 age group.
That prompted Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to warn of an “existential” threat to Greek society, with Greece more vulnerable than most to the broader demographic changes affecting developed nations.
“The fact is that today our people are among the oldest in Europe,” Mitsotakis explain Last year, he spoke at a Greek population conference.
The problem affects some areas of mainland Greece and its vast archipelago more than others.
Local regulations are also necessary, with overall population collapse effectively becoming an existential bet for our future.
Kyriakos Mitsotakis
prime minister of greece
“This population decline does not play out equally across the country,” Mitsotakis continued. “It peaks in specific areas, which means that national strategies are not enough and local regulations are needed, and that the overall population collapse is actually Become a bet for our future survival.”
The most obvious manifestation of this decline is the emergence of a large number of ghost towns and villages, places with few or no inhabitants, abandoned as the local population left or became extinct. It is difficult to quantify the exact number of these sites as they are often remote, but recent estimates put the number of completely abandoned towns and villages at closer to 200.
Founded in 1885, the school educated generations of children in Rasta and surrounding areas before it closed due to a lack of students.
CNBC
Many buildings are almost forgotten, with dilapidated structures the only signs of former life. Meanwhile, others like Rasta have also become Sources of Alternative Tourismvisitors come to cafes and abandoned buildings eager to experience a piece of history.
In Greece’s last census in 2021, the permanent population of Rasta was 12 people, but when CNBC visited in 2024, there was no sign of permanent residents.
The remnants of the Greek financial crisis
Much of Greece’s recent population decline can be traced to the country’s 2009 sovereign debt crisis. Up to a quarter.
Young people are one of the groups hardest hit by the recession, with youth unemployment peak In the first quarter of 2013, it was 59.5%, more than double the national high (about 27%).
Old photos depicting the once-bustling neighborhood of Rasta, now deserted, are part of a collection of historical memorabilia on display in a deserted cafe.
CNBC
As a result, many people are unable to start a new life outside the family. Of those who do, many do so overseas, estimated at more than 400,000 people – or 9% of the workforce – emigrate period. Most of the rest moved to Greece’s larger cities in search of better jobs and education.
Today, more than half (53.5%) of Greece’s population lives in the capital Athens and the surrounding Atiki region, as well as the country’s second-largest city, Thessaloniki. Meanwhile, all other regions, including Greece’s prized islands, have seen population declines over the past few years.
We need to be shocked. We need something that creates a sense of security and optimism.
Sofia Zacharaki
Greek Minister of Social Cohesion and Family Affairs
Many demographers say the roots of the country’s population decline can even be traced back to the 1980s – another recession. Since then, falling birth rates have led to fewer women of childbearing age, with the proportion of women aged 20 to 40 now 150,000 smaller than five years ago.
Initiatives to support population growth
The government now predicts that the population could fall to 7.5 million by 2050 from around 10.4 million now, a drop of more than a quarter.
To help solve the problem, Mitsotakis last year roll out The new Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family Affairs will unify and strengthen support for children and vulnerable groups.
In October, the ministry announced it would spend 20 billion euros ($21 billion) until 2035 on incentives to stem population decline, such as child benefits, increased parental leave and tax breaks. The head of the office, Sofia Zacharaki, said the measures were intended to serve as a wake-up call for society.
An abandoned house overgrown with plants and leaves – one of many in the abandoned village of Rasta in the Arcadia region of Greece.
CNBC
“We need shock. We need something that creates a sense of security and optimism, especially among young people,” Minister of Social Cohesion and Family Affairs Zacharaki told CNBC via video call.
She continued: “We are facing not only the economic impact … but also the mentality that is being instilled in the minds of many young people, whether it’s because of recurring crises or because of disillusionment.” She added Said the funding should give more people the option of starting a family.
However, Colin said he doubted whether child support measures would be enough to change the trend and that major policy changes may be needed to support demographic changes.
“There doesn’t seem to be a single example of policies introduced somewhere that can quickly reverse this decline,” he said, adding that other policies could include incentives to encourage more young people to stay in Greece and attract those who left to come back.
Demographic changes affect economic growth
Greece’s population decline runs counter to the country’s now significantly improved economic outlook.
The Greek economy is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024 2.3% in 2025 –More than major European economies. The country’s original forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.9% in 2025 was revised down only due to the overall economic slowdown in the European Union.
Still, economists warn that population decline could ultimately undermine economic growth in the long term.
We are currently in the midst of an unprecedented demographic transition.
Jim Reed
Global Head of Macro Research, Deutsche Bank
“Overall, demographic development is absolutely key to economic growth,” Colin said. “It’s about how many people are working and how productive those people are.” He highlighted the “connection between growth in the working-age population and GDP per capita.” Strong correlation”.
Greece is not alone in this phenomenon: population decline is a problem faced by many developed countries. The fertility rates of Japan and South Korea are respectively 1.2 and 0.72 By 2023, these countries will each be among the best-known examples of population decline. But many Western countries, including China, have rapidly aging populations that require greater government support.
Many homes in the area fell into disrepair as residents traveled to larger cities in search of jobs and opportunities.
“We are currently in the midst of an unprecedented demographic transition, with global population growth continuing to slow and there are few clear signs that this is about to happen,” Jim Reed, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a November report. change.
“Given that demographics are almost certain to worsen further in the QC 2024 to 2049 (quarter century), you would expect another QC with real GDP growth and real returns on equity to be below long-term averages, especially in The developed market (developed market) world,” he added.
