Aerial view – This aerial photo shows the bullet-riddled effigy of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad adorning Hama’s municipal government building after it was destroyed by gunfire on December 6, 2024 It was destroyed after being occupied by government armed forces.
Omar Haji Kadour | AFP | Getty Images
The dramatic overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime at the hands of rebels this weekend could have far-reaching consequences for the Middle Eastern country, global alliances and markets, analysts say.
Over the past two weeks, rebels led by the Islamist militant group Tahrir al-Sham have launched a lightning offensive across the country, seizing major cities along the way. The faction eventually captured the capital, Damascus, over the weekend, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek asylum in Russia. According to Russian state media.
Western countries are wary of Assad’s overthrow, fearing further bloodshed and a power vacuum in Syria if a chaotic and contentious leadership transition occurs.
Syria, a country torn apart by a brutal 13-year civil war, has in recent years pitted competing factions, including the self-proclaimed Islamic State, against Assad’s forces, adding to the growing rivalry. The possibility of power.
For now, however, the fall of the Assad dynasty, which has been in power for more than 50 years, has a more immediate global impact, with Russia and Iran seen as the “losers” in the Syrian dictator’s overthrow, while the United States, Turkey and Israel considered one of them.
On December 6, 2024, an anti-government militant held a weapon and stood near a defaced portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the city of Hama after troops occupied the central Syrian city.
Omar Haji Kadour | AFP | Getty Images
“The rapid collapse of Assad’s regime in Damascus will have repercussions far beyond Syria. The biggest losers are Iran and Russia, without whose support Assad would have lost the nearly 14-year civil war,” Belen said Berg chief economist Holger Schmieding.
“Iran may have lost its main route for delivering weapons to the Hezbollah terror militia in Lebanon. While there may be a power vacuum in parts of Syria for a while, the Middle East may ultimately become less unstable as a result,” Schmi Ding said in the report.
The United States and Europe are bolder
Starting with the United States, economists say Assad’s fall and the ensuing weakening of Russia and Iran as they lose a key ally in the region will bring consequences for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers. A welcome boost.
“The new reality is that Donald Trump takes office on January 20th He will face a threat committee in 2025, the opposition looks severely weakened and the United States holds many cards,” market strategist Bill Blain said in emailed comments on Monday.
He added: “This doesn’t mean the world is any less dangerous – it’s not at all clear what kind of new Syria might emerge after Assad is overthrown – but there is a sense that power and global initiative could shift back towards the West. .
French President Macron (center) takes a walk after meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris on December 7, 2024.
Julian DeRosa | AFP | Getty Images
Bryan said Assad’s fall, and the “de facto defeat” of Russia and Iran in the process, “had a huge impact on markets, easing concerns about dollar supremacy while bolstering Trump’s global trade The impetus behind the possible development of the vision” – he noted, both in terms of putting the dollar and the dollar front and center.
“The impact on market sentiment could be huge in terms of global confidence, and as growth expectations rise, there will be a redirection of funds towards U.S. assets and commodities,” Bryan said.
Europe could also be a beneficiary of regime change in Syria if it means fewer displaced refugees entering the region – a development that has fueled anti-immigration sentiment and the rise of populist parties in recent years.
Israel and Türkiye boost
Analysts also pointed out that the main immediate geopolitical “winners” are Israel and Turkey, with the former’s regional enemy Iran further weakened by the fall of Assad and Ankara becoming “the most influential foreign actor in the country”, Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of risk consultancy Teneo, noted on Sunday.
“Turkey shares a 560-mile border with Syria and has been a major backer of opposition groups seeking to overthrow Assad since the civil war began in 2011,” he said in emailed comments.
Piccoli said that “Turkey will (for now) be the biggest external beneficiary of Assad’s fall”, although he also warned that “if a dangerous power vacuum does not occur and the power does not exist, Ankara will only feel the power of the Damascus regime” The benefits of change.” The transfer has been relatively uneventful since then. “
Turkish President Erdogan delivers a national statement at the World Climate Action Summit on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on December 1, 2023.
Thaïs Sultani | Reuters
“In other words, Turkey will only benefit if the Assad regime is replaced by a well-functioning government that can face the difficult task of providing stability to a diverse country with competing factions that need Billions of dollars in aid and investment to rebuild.
“It is no surprise that the Turkish authorities urged Syrian opposition groups to unite after the fall of the Damascus regime while avoiding any triumphalist claims,” ​​he noted.
Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad’s fall because of the impact it had on Iran, which uses Syria as a supply route for its proxy in Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah. Israel seeks to severely weaken this supply chain as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
David Roach of Quantum Strategies described Assad’s fall in a report on Monday as the first major geopolitical tectonic shift in a long time weakening the “axis of authoritarianism” that includes Iran and Russia.
“This does not eliminate the conflict between Israel and Iran. But it increases the power of Israel and the United States to continue to weaken Iran’s economic power (Trump will first impose severe sanctions). Ultimately, Iran’s nuclear ambitions will still have to be combated.” There will be a military solution, but that will come later (late 2025, 2026?),” Roach said.
Russia weakens
The other most prominent “loser” in Assad’s overthrow is his ally and supporter Russia, which has helped prop up Assad’s regime since the start of the civil war. This time, Moscow’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine has limited the amount of military aid it is willing and able to provide to Assad’s forces.
There is no doubt that Russia will be worried about the influence and goodwill that the new leadership in Syria can bring. Moscow has a vested interest in keeping the new government on its side, as it has an air base in Khmeimim and a naval base in Tartus with access to the Mediterranean.
Rebels have assured the Kremlin they will secure Russian military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria, Reuters quoted a Russian news agency reportBut Russia’s long-term military presence in the country is considered far from certain.
A man sits in front of a poster depicting ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) and Russian President Vladimir in the Syrian port city of Tartus on July 24 Putin, and read in Arabic “Syria stands with the Russian Federation”.
Luai Beshara | AFP | Getty Images
Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, described Assad’s ouster as “a huge shame for Putin, who has always stressed that he never abandons allies.”
“The limits of Russia’s military power have now been exposed – unable to fight multiple wars and still mired in Ukraine. Putin is fighting to retain the valuable asset of the warm-water port of Tartus – and if he retains it, he may Turkey has to make concessions elsewhere,” Ashe said.
He further noted that Putin “now enters the Ukraine peace talks from a weak position,” adding that developments in Syria make “a better peace in Ukraine” more likely.
As for Iran, strategist Ashe said Tehran’s misfortune has only intensified after Israel severely weakened its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
“Iran – Things are getting worse as another proxy domino falls, Hezbollah and now Assad. Will Tehran be next? Will we see internal forces emerge again? In emailed comments, Ashe questioned what Tehran could do now to “stop” the deterioration of its influence.
