Ballots will be counted at the Dublin RDS Center in Dublin on 1 December 2024, the second day of counting for the Irish general election.
Ben Stanthal | AFP | Getty Images
Ireland’s election looks set to secure victory for the incumbent center-right parties that have dominated the country’s politics for nearly a century, signaling continuity in the business community but masking widespread dissatisfaction over many social issues.
Fianna Fáil (led by Michael Martin) and Fine Gael (led by Simon Harris) It appears to be forming by noon on Monday The coalition is just shy of a parliamentary majority in the 174-seat House of Representatives and is now expected to seek the support of one or two smaller opposition parties to form a government.
A key question is who will be Taoiseach, as Harris currently holds the position, but the Irish Defeat Party will become the larger party. One possibility is a repeat of the rotating power-sharing arrangement previously agreed to by the two parties in 2020, when Joining the alliance for the first time.
Friday’s vote resulted in some shocking losses for some high-profile figures, but also left former coalition members the Greens, who retained just one of 12 seats, and left-wing challenger Sinn Féin, who are expected to contest the election. Fine Gael’s TD numbers were flat) disappointed. Fine Gael and Fine Gael have ruled out a partnership with left-wing parties.
The results “break an international trend of weak incumbent election results this year,” analysts at investment firm David said in a note.
“The only thing that’s surprising is that it’s not surprising,” Laurent Muzellec, dean of Trinity Business School in Dublin, told CNBC by phone. “The voters said we wanted the same result, or At least that’s the outcome of the election.
“Underneath this, however, is a growing sense of frustration among a growing proportion of the Irish population, and this election did not reflect that frustration. Sinn Féin seems to have failed to capture this frustration, as evidenced by the low turnout out.
Chief among these problems is the country’s dire housing crisis, with increasing numbers of homeless people, especially in the capital Dublin, Muzelek said.
Muzelek noted that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had made some commitments to increase housing supply, but the back-and-forth nature of the coalition meant it was unclear what elements of the manifesto would go further.
Some of these dissatisfactions may manifest in exit polls Of those, just 27 per cent named Fine Gael’s Harris as their favorite leader, while 35 per cent named Fianna Fáil’s Martin and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald. 35% and 34% respectively.
business benefits
Economists question whether the United States faces an economic threat from Trump’s re-election in the United States, as he threatens sweeping tariffs and a protectionist, “America First” stance.
“Across all euro zone members,” Capital Economics economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds said in a report last month. Ireland is by far the most vulnerable country to US trade losses.
U.S. demand accounts for about 1.5% of euro zone economic activity, Germany’s demand accounts for about 1.7%, and Ireland’s share is 7%, the research group said, adding that Ireland “exports a disproportionately high share to the U.S.”
“The economy may also be affected by tax cuts for US businesses if US businesses convince US multinationals to move operations back to the US from Ireland. Nonetheless, we remain optimistic about Ireland’s economic prospects given Ireland’s other advantages,” Economy The scientist continued.
Laurent Muzellec of Trinity Business School told CNBC that the latest election results confirm that there is no major political movement in Ireland calling for its own protectionist turn away from its highly open economy.
He said this sent a signal that it was “still a great place to do business, still open to global companies and as business-friendly as it has been for the past 30 or 40 years”.
Muzelek continued that while a Trump presidency could impact companies’ decisions on where to locate factories in the future, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry when it comes to manufacturing facilities, any kind of exodus is unlikely.
“For the big companies, they originally came here for tax reasons but now have thousands of employees,” he said. “Many of these jobs are in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) sales and customer service, so they need to stay in Europe, so if they leave Ireland, where do they go? The UK is no longer part of the EU and France is politically unstable -Their other options are limited.
