Polling stations in Ireland.
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Ireland is going to the polls on November 29, with centre-right parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael once again expected to be at the heart of the country’s next government.
The historic rivals have shared power with the Greens for the past five years, and the latest polls show their support remains strong as the campaign enters its final days.
Whoever leads the country after the vote will face some unique economic challenges and opportunities: Ireland has a budget surplus thanks to its unique position as the European headquarters of major U.S. tech and pharmaceutical companies, while its balance sheet has been hit by september ruling The European Court of Justice ordered Apple to pay 13 billion euros ($13.7 billion) in back taxes to the country.
Dublin, on the other hand, is concerned that US President-elect Trump will seek to clamp down on US companies that pay taxes in Ireland rather than the United States.
political perspective
Despite some difficulties for Fine Gael as the campaign winds down, the country’s two largest parties appear to be on track to form a government again. latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll A November 25 poll showed Fine Gael’s support had fallen by 6 points in the past two weeks to 19%, while Fianna Fáil’s support now stood at 21%.
Republican Sinn Féin made significant gains at the last general election and now has support at 20%, compared to 17% for independent candidates. Ireland uses a proportional voting system, and if no party is able to secure a majority at an election, a coalition government is certain.
However, it is unclear how policy will change, given the influence the Finance Party and Fine Gael could wield in a potential government.
Housing is a major issue; central bank of ireland A report as recently as September warned that Ireland’s “housing market has been undersupplied for more than a decade”, adding that rents and house prices had soared beyond what people could afford. The central bank went on to predict that “around 52,000 new homes per year may be needed by mid-century, an increase of 20,000 relative to 2023 supply.”
Official figures show homelessness has reached record levels across the country, particularly in Dublin, with almost 15,000 people entering emergency accommodation in September, 4,561 of whom were children.
Despite concerns about tight housing supply, Emma Howard, an economist at TU Dublin, said in an email to CNBC that Ireland remains attractive to workers because it is “the only English-speaking country with access to Europe’s single market and we have The workforce is relatively younger and better educated than its European counterparts.
budget bonus
The good news is that the country is on solid financial footing, more than a decade after the government sought a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. Budget surplus has been factored in past two yearsand Treasury Secretary Jack Chambers It was revealed in September that the country is expected to post a surplus of up to 24 billion euros this year, driven by economic growth European Court of Justice ruling.
Ireland’s outlook was further boosted in mid-November when S&P Global Ratings upgraded its outlook to positive from stable and added that it may revise its rating. Rated AAA – the agency’s highest rating – if Dublin “continues to rebuild its economic and fiscal buffers”.
Still, the report warned authorities that 10 foreign-owned multinationals will account for half of the country’s corporate tax revenue in 2023.
However, Howard said that “if you strip out ‘windfall’ corporation tax, the share of government revenue that is not domestic economic activity, Ireland actually has a budget deficit, with current spending plans adding up to a deficit between 2024 and 2030” amounting to 50 billion euros.
Many of them are American companies, and that’s what could be the cloud on the country’s horizon.
Trump’s return
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has captured the world’s attention as the president-elect begins to implement his “America First” policies.
It could also threaten Ireland’s status as a favorite for paying taxes to U.S. companies, Dublin’s corporate tax rate It is currently among the lowest levels in the Eurozone. incoming secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick In October, when he lashed out at Ireland’s trade surplus with the United States, Lutnick threatened to end what he called “this nonsense”.
CEO Cantor Fitzgerald will also have “additional direct responsibilities” for the Office of the United States Trade Representative under the incoming administration. President-elect Trump himself has business ties to Ireland, owning a golf club on the European country’s west coast since 2014. He has previously used the resort as a base when visiting Ireland during his first presidential term.
